We’ve reached a point in the models when we can now be more confident about how this weekend is likely to pan out. Through the course of Saturday an area of low pressure will push to the South of the United Kingdom, as it does so much colder air will be drawn in from the East.
Whilst there are still some slight uncertainties over where the snow is going to fall I think the best guess at the moment would be across Wales, South-West Midlands, Southern Midlands and later on into a wider bulk of Southern England, though I suspect it’ll initially be falling as rain here. We’ll also see snow showers becoming increasingly frequent along Eastern Coastal areas and perhaps through Scotland too.
The rain, sleet and snow will continue through into Sunday but I think it’ll turn increasingly light and patchy before eventually clearing during the afternoon. Accumulations of 4-6cm are likely, particularly over higher ground and to areas North of the M4, showers will continue across Eastern Coastal areas but at the moment I don’t think these will penetrate very far inland.
As we move into next week we move into a period of considerable uncertainty. First lets take a look at the ensembles to see whether they can give us any clues.
There’s a lot of scatter within them as we move into next week so it’s hard to have a clear idea over how things are going to develop. What is clear though is that nearly all ensemble members are below the 30 year average (red line) so it’s quite clear we’re going to be seeing quite a prolonged period of below average temperatures. What isn’t clear is whether it’ll be cold enough for further snowfall, as the annotated chart shows.
The ECM ensembles paint a similar picture with scatter into the medium range they are in agreement for a prolonged period of colder temperatures
So despite the uncertainties as we move into next week, currently the most likely outcome is for things to remain cold, perhaps slightly less cold at times but the threat of snowfall never far away.