Thunderstorm Watch


UK-Thunderstorm-Risk

Valid: Saturday 11th May 2013

Issued For: Heavy Thundery Showers, Locally Severe

Synopsis:

An active cold front pushing Eastwards during the course of this afternoon combined with weak deep layer sheer, CAPE of 500-900 J/KG and a LIFTED INDEX of -2/-3 will produce isolated heavy thundery showers in the highlighted areas.

Areas in the 40% risk zone may see these showers include hail & gusty winds. One or two cells may develop supercell characteristics due to the deep layer sheer and this brings a low risk of funnel clouds or weak tornadoes.

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3 Comments on “Thunderstorm Watch”

  1. michael Weatherfreak Says:

    Well, With What I saw of The size of Tornado’s In Italy, Which I never seen before In Northern Europe, I am not surprised, nor should anybody else, since The official CO2 Count is now more than 400PPM,The Highest in 3.6 Million Years , which was when Gazelles and Antelope Actually inhabited Arctic regions, including Northern Canada.

    But No Tornado watch In Blackpool today,!! Just the usual Cold, Rain, strong Wind, & heating still on at times, and its already the 11Th May.

    In my youth, My father turned all heating off, or put fires away, at end of April, until late September. The Cherry tree blossom’s is Just coming out here, and Forsythia’s beautiful displays of yellow flowers ,normally seen In late march, have been very spasmodic in Appearance , and Some Shrubs and trees, still Have hardly Any foliage yet.

    Sad to see Our country ravaged by Global warming, which is going to make The United Kingdom, NOT warmer, But colder. This is the paradox many don’t understand, But its true. But other regions can expect an increase of temps, far and beyond the normal, mainly down to the increasing Greenhouse gas, we all know as Carbon Dioxide.

    Scientists who still scoff at Global warming, can now hold there heads in shame, now its proven over the industrial ages of over 55 years CO2 emissions are still heading upwards, despite catalytic converters and energy saving vehicles all around the world, no one country is going to make a difference, it has to be a global Purpose to reduce it wholesale, But I think we already to late in acting, The cast is set for Our weather to get ominously worse, This is also born out by the latest RSPB report, who are really worried, That our usual Migrant Birds are not returning to our shores as they should each year , due to changes in the environment where they overwinter, mainly in Africa.
    You can read about the decline of our Migrant Bird Summer population on the RSPB website.

    This is one blog By Guardian media group, Who I believe, are in some way connected to Epping, waltham, and Chingford Forests.
    —————————————————————————————————————-
    The UK is in danger of losing some of the most distinctive sounds of summer, including the cuckoo’s call, as migrant bird numbers plummet, a wildlife trust has warned.

    The 2010 breeding bird survey, run by the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), shows that eight out of the 10 species with the highest declines in numbers over the past 15 years are birds which migrate to sub-Saharan Africa for the winter.

    Cuckoo numbers have fallen by almost half (48%) since 1995, wood warblers have seen numbers fall by 60% and whinchat and yellow wagtail populations have dropped by 55%.

    The worst-hit species is the turtle dove, which has seen numbers fall by almost three quarters (74%) in the past 15 years – and last year alone saw populations slump by more than a fifth (21%).

    The crisis also appears to be worsening for the nightingale, whose populations have tumbled by almost two-thirds (63%) since 1995 and fell by 27% in a year between 2009 and 2010.

    Martin Davies, of the charity RSPB, said: “The cuckoo and the gentle purring of a turtle dove provide a comforting vocal backdrop to picnics and village cricket games. However, we are in danger of losing these sentinels of summer as the birds’ populations have slumped since the mid-1990s.”

    The RSPB is warning that similar declines are being seen across Europe and species were at risk of “just disappearing off the map”.

    The list of 10 species with the worst declines in numbers since 1995 was dominated by migratory birds: the turtle dove, the wood warbler, the nightingale, whinchat, yellow wagtail, pied flycatcher, cuckoo and spotted flycatcher.

    Year-round residents the willow tit and grey partridge declined by 76% and 54% respectively over the period.

    The survey, which is funded by the BTO, the Joint Nature Conservation Committee and RSPB, also revealed that kingfisher numbers fell by 39% last year, probably due to the freezing weather.

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Tornadoes are surprisingly common here in the UK, we actually have more tornadoes per-square mile here in the UK than in America, though of course Americas far, far bigger! We typically have 30-32 tornadoes in an average year, most of them weak and over fielded areas

      Reply

      • michael Weatherfreak Says:

        With the “day After Tomorrow ” Tornado Storm in Oklahoma firmly embedded in our minds, today, As Danial says above, Tornado’s on a smaller scale happen more often than people think.

        But today My thoughts turn to our weather, and my Question Im Bantering about, is, Could a category III-4 Tornado ever form in the UK?

        Well, For one thing, The northern hemisphere of our globe is experiencing a still very unusual spell of continued cold weather, in fact, there is the possibility of a Blizzard warning in parts of Scotland, by Thursday, helped, By us being squeezed yet again by similar Winter low pressure systems north of Scandinavia. So by Thursday , we will be back to 10%C instead of 18-25% which is normal for start of June.

        BUT, What happens , if, say in July, A lot of heat, and Moisture laden Thunderstorms start coming out of France, and travel up to the Midlands?

        The Air will probably be Dry over the North Sea, at this time of year, But what if Another unusual plunge of cold air, gets sqeezed down the middle of the country, and of course being squeezed, means higher wind speeds. Hypothetically, The Thunderstorm Warm Moist air from France at say 24%C Meets the Cold Blast from the North at , say 12%C, the result, along with the dry air to the east, which may be dragged into the two systems, could well result In upper atmosphere disturbances far what we are used to, spawning major Super cells, Which could easily trigger at least a category III Tornado. We dont have the vast plains of USA true, But, we do have the same type of weather that Northern Canada is experiencing, Which is unseasonably low temperatures for early Summer.

        If this trend Continues, and Southern Britain remains Warm and Northern Britain remains cold, and the two very different variable air masses meet, The most probable site for a large Tornado would be inland across The West Midlands, because that’s the largest land mass that spans our Island.

        Italy is not what you call a large land mass, but they experienced A series of quite large Tornado’s recently

        of course Im no Scientist, & my thinking here, may not be What the experts would agree with, But having said that, The continued Northerly Cold Air, will at some point, come up against A Hot Thunderstorm system travelling up from france or even Spain.

        Would any one take bets, that this type of set up would not spark some super cell activity in the UK and the increased chance of A strong Tornado Forming??

        Reply

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