High Pressure looks increasingly likely to develop more to the West of the country which will bring generally dry weather away from the far North where we’re likely to see more in the way of cloud and perhaps some rain from time to time.

As we move through the course of the week much the same is expected however with High Pressure developing out to the West there becomes an increasing risk of colder weather returning from the North, it’s still early days yet but i’ll keep you updated.

I issued my last update a couple of hours ago and since then, the models have started to agree on where the snowfall is likely to be through tomorrow and into Friday, I have therefore decided to issue a weatherwarning today, rather than tomorrow.

Valid: Thursday 9th – Friday 10th February

Issued For: Heavy Snowfall

Through the course of Thursday a warm front pushing Southwards across the United Kingdom will begin to turn increasingly to snow as it runs into some colder air. Whilst exact snowfall amounts are uncertain the models have got good agreement on where the snowfall is likely to fall during Thursday and Thursday night into Friday.

Orange Zone:  (See Map Below) A weather warning has been issued for this area for some significant snowfall, accumulations in the range of 6-10cm are expected through the course of Thursday and into Thursday night, driving conditions are likely to become dangerous for a time.

Yellow Zone: (See Map Below) A weather advisory has been issued for this area, whilst snowfall is expected to be fairly light and quite patchy in nature accumulations of 1-3cm are possible and due to possible real time shifts in this weather system these areas meet the criteria for an advisory.

The map below is to be taken as a guide, an update to this and a weather warning will be issued on Thursday evening to take into account all the latest information.

We’ve had quite a cold week across much of the United Kingdom and we’ve also seen some significant snowfall, but is this setup likely to continue throughout into next? It looks like we’re going to see more of a West/East split with Eastern areas remaining rather cold whilst Western areas become slightly warmer with spells of rain at times, elsewhere it looks likely to be largely dry.

Towards the end of the week however, there are signs that the colder air will once again spread Westwards across much of the United Kingdom

So a fairly quite week expected, coldest in the East and Mildest in the West, towards the end of the week it looks likely to turn much colder across the entire country with snowfall perhaps returning to the forecast. As always I’ll keep you updated and if anything small pops up within the models at a short time frame I’ll be talking about it.

Last night I issued a general guide where the snowfall was likely to be, where it’d turn back to rain and where would see the highest accumulations, todays models are out and there’s now a lot more confidence in just where the snow is likely to fall and because of that, I am issuing a Severe Weather Warning.

Warnings Map - Click to Enlarge

Valid: Saturday 4th – Sunday 5th February

Issued For: Heavy Snowfall

Through Saturday and into Sunday a series of advancing weather fronts from the West will push Eastwards across the country, as these hit the cold air rain will steadily turn to snow throughout the day producing some fairly significant accumulations in places.

Yellow: Snow will turn to rain through the day as milder air filters in, accumulations of 4-6cm possible especially over higher ground

Orange: These areas likely to see a more prolonged spell of heavy snow giving larger accumulations, however even here we’re likely to see the snowfall turning to rain.

RED: These areas likely to see the longest spell of snowfall giving significant accumulations, the map below is to be taken as a guide as exact depths are hard to predict. Western areas of this region may see snow turning to sleet and rain, however the further East you are the less likely this is to happen

Tonight

Snow showers will begin to filter in across East Anglia and South-East England, this may give a dusting to some, elsewhere dry, clear skies and very cold.

Friday

Snow showers will die away across Eastern areas giving a relatively dry and bright day, however he snow shower risk does return during the evening across East Anglia and SE England giving accumulations of 2-4cm in some areas.

Saturday See Map Below

Through the course of Saturday an Atlantic weather front pushing Eastwards will bring a period of snow to most, further West however this is likely to turn increasingly to rain as the day progresses however Eastern areas look likely to hold onto that cold air, resulting in an all snow event.

Areas in Green

These areas expected to see largely rain, perhaps a very brief area of snow.

Areas in Yellow

Heavy snow will begin to turn to rain through the day, accumulations of 4-6cm possible, particularly over higher ground before turning back to rain.

Areas in Red

Now the forecast becomes tricky, it looks like these areas will see the worst of the snowfall providing the models continue to show the snow in these areas, heavy snowfall through Saturday and into Sunday may result in accumulations of 10-15cm widely, locally 20-25cm certainly not being ruled out.

Final Update tomorrow to take into account model shifts.

As we go through the next couple of days though we are likely to see some snowfall developing, firstly lets take a look at a High Resolution model called the NAE to see where snowfall is predicted to fall through Thursday and indeed Friday.

NAE Model showing Thursdays snow risk

NAE Model showing Fridays Snow Risk

The above two charts show that there is indeed a risk of snowfall moving into parts of Eastern England and East Anglia through Thursday and Friday, these charts have been known to slightly under do the snow risk though, so I think through Thursday and Friday there’s always the risk of these snow showers being slightly more widespread than the above charts show, however anything more than a localised 1-2cm isn’t expected. Click the map below to see how high your chances of seeing snowfall are through Thursday and Friday only

Thursday & Friday Snow Risk map

Note: The above is to be taken as a general guide and is based on latest model outputs, an update may be issued for Friday if there are any changes within the models through the course of tomorrow. 1-2cm possible in exposed locations.

Through Saturday and into Sunday a huge amount of uncertainty appears due to divergence within the models, some models want to bring milder air in fairly quickly producing a short period of snowfall which turns to rain, other models continue to forecast the colder air hanging on, particularly in Eastern areas giving a more prolonged period of snowfall which is making the forecast very difficult. I am issuing an early warning and snow risk map below, please note this is highly subject to change in the coming days due to huge uncertainty and should be taken as a guide only.

Having said that, there is a strong single for cold to continue into next week, so I think for the weekend onwards some areas seeing a fair amount of snowfall, further West it may turn slightly warmer for a time but Eastern and South-Eastern areas remaining cold, before turning cold again everywhere early next week, that is the most likely outcome, but is by no means certain.

Looking closer to home though, some areas, particularly Eastern areas have seen some snowfall today albeit fairly light which has giving a dusting to one or two areas, as the week progresses I think we’ll continue to see scattered and fairly light snow showers, these perhaps becoming a little heavier through Thursday and Friday.

Issued For: Snowfall, Dangerous Conditions

Valid: Sunday 29th – Monday 30th January

Through the course of Sunday an advancing area of cold air will push Westwards across the United Kingdom, at the same time a weather front will attempt to push into Western areas and as this moisture clashes with the colder air it’s likely to begin to turn to snowfall. Key areas look likely to be across Wales, particularly above 250M where we could see anything up to 10cm in exposed locations, areas below this elevation are likely to see a mix of rain, sleet and snow with accumulations locally of 2-5cm, though this is deemed fairly unlikely.

Orange Zone – Weather Warning Issued: Those in the orange zone above 250M can expect to see a period of moderate-heavy snowfall through Sunday night and into Monday morning, local accumulations of up to 10cm seem likely and this could cause travel problems across higher routes, lower lying areas may see small local accumulations but a general wintry mix is more likely.

Yellow Zone – Weather Advisory Issued: A weather advisory has been issued for parts of South-West England, as this weather front begins to clear Southwards, colder air will continue to mix in and could produce some snowfall for a time, particularly across higher levels, accumulations of 5-7cm are possible locally. Lower levels again likely to see a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly snow during heavier bursts, but accumulations are unlikely here.

Below is the ECM computer model for Tuesday 31st January

So as early as the beginning of next week, we have Heights building to our North East and this will allow colder weather to push Westwards towards the United Kingdom through Sunday and into Early next week, this may give some snow flurries to Eastern parts but I think for the time being, cold and dry is the most likely theme, at least for early next week.

As the week goes on, we see an area of High Pressure develop over the United Kingdom, and whilst we continue to see Easterly winds, this High Pressure keeps those winds fairly slack which means the colder air will begin to become more stagnant and perhaps less cold for a time.

It’s after this period however that the models tend to diverge and uncertainty becomes an issue with the forecast. The ECM wants to open up the flood gates from the East and allow some VERY cold air across the United Kingdom, this having the potential to bring some widespread, heavy snowfall as we move towards NEXT weekend the charts below indicate this.

The GFS however, another computer model that we use, takes things in a slightly different direction, we’ll take next Sunday as a marker again, to highlight the differences between these two models, below are the GFS charts

Whilst the GFS does indeed bring the cold air to the United Kingdom, it’s evolution about it is much different and would result in cold, but largely dry weather across the United Kingdom, so there’s still a long way to go before we know exactly what’s likely to happen.

Weather Forecast:

Through the weekend it will be largely dry and cold, widespread night time frosts and fog patches are likely to develop, there’s always a chance of one or two snow flurries across the Eastern side of the United Kingdom but it’s unlikely to cause any disruption, as we move through Sunday night and into Monday though, an area of rain will begin to work its way in across Western areas and with cold in place, this may turn to snow across Wales, North-West England and perhaps even down into South-West England for a time, accumulations most likely over higher ground and this is likely to fall as a mixture of rain, sleet and snow to lower levels.

As we move through the first part of the week it will remain largely dry and cold, once again always the chance of one or two light snow flurries in the East and South-East but this never amounting to very much. Beyond this the forecast becomes uncertain and one of three things could happen;

1. The milder air wins out and it becomes much milder and unsettled.

2. It becomes even colder still, but remains generally dry bar one or two light snow flurries

3. It becomes colder still, but heavy snowfall begins to effect large parts of the country.

Either one of the outcomes above are possible as we move through into the first part of February, as always we’ll keep you updated.