October Outlook + Winter Forecast Update

September 20, 2010

Weather Forecasts


Here’s a look towards the month of October, and indeed an update to my winter forecast

October Outlook:

I think overall, October is likely to be a settled month with high pressure over, or close to the UK for a majority of the time. Having said that, I think high pressure is likely to be more on the Western side of the UK than the East, so generally cool with temperatures just below average, if anything can be classed as “Autumnal” I think October will be.

Week 1:

High pressure over the United Kingdom bringing a fair amount of sunshine across Southern and Western Parts, however I think there’s likely to be more in the way of cloud coming in off of the North Sea across Eastern and Northern most parts. Temperatures dropping away under clear skies across Central and Western parts during the night, so night time frosts and fog becoming a possibility.

Week 2:

Again, generally settled. A weak area of low pressure running Southwards into the North Sea will bring winds from a more North-North East direction, filtering cloud and light rain into Eastern and Northern areas, some of these showers likely to be wintry over higher ground in the North. Further South and West again dry with some sunshine around, however there’s likely to be more in the way of cloud around.

Week 3:

Our first real blast of winter, another area of low pressure moving Southwards into the North Sea bringing brisk Northerly winds, colder air will push down from the North allowing rain showers to turn to sleet and wet snow across Eastern areas, particularly over higher ground but dont be too surprised to see one or two wintry showers filtering down into East Anglia from time to time.

Week 4:

Generally dry and settled but cool with high pressure again close by, frosts and fog likely with again, the chance of wintry showers affecting Eastern areas, however I think they’ll mostly be of rain down to lower levels with any sleet and wet snow being confined to higher ground in the North. Fog and frost likely in the South.

Winter General Outlook

I don’t want to go into too much detail of winter weather just yet, I’ll issue a detailed winter forecast towards the end of October. But heres a quick outlook of how I currently expect the winter months to pan out.

November – I expect November to be a cold month with frequent snow showers affecting Eastern and Northern areas, these showers coming together at times to bring more organized and more significant snowfall events.

December – A little milder than November with a mixture of sunshine and showers for the most part, turning colder again during the middle of the month with again, snow likely, however I think snow will be more frequent across more Northern areas this time, with little snow in the South. The best chance of a white Christmas being in the North, however cold and frosty in the South for the big day.

January – Widespread snow affecting Southern and Central areas, high pressure building to the North will allow cold, arctic like winds to come in from the near continent. A January very much this last winters in terms of snowfall and cold. Towards the middle of the month I expect high pressure to be broken down by areas of low pressure moving in from an increasingly active Atlantic.

February – Generally mild and wet with low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic, although not fully zonal. As low pressure systems clear Eastwards colder air will move down from the North bringing wintry showers to Northern and Eastern areas, widespread heavy snow for a time as low pressure systems move in and replace the colder air with milder air.

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One Comment on “October Outlook + Winter Forecast Update”

  1. Stuart Says:

    Interesting. Hope your right. Do you know when the first significant snowfalls will occur after it snowed in Altnaharra today.

    Reply

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