Well, we’re off to a terrible start as far as my October forecast is concerned. We’re not even into week one and it seems to already be going wrong. The Atlantic has woken up and over the next 5-7 days it looks like the Atlantic will be dominating our weather throwing areas of low pressure towards the UK. Just about everywhere is expected to see some wet and windy weather in the coming days, the worst of which is likely to be across more Northern and Western areas, where we could even see some localised flooding at times due to the heavy rain.
Despite the relatively stormy begin to the month, I am still expecting my October forecast to recover during the second and third week of October with high pressure building Northwards into the Atlantic allowing colder air to frequent our shores from the North. The reason for this change in forecast is all thanks to something called the North Atlantic Oscillation. During the last few days its pushed up into a weak positive for the first time in months, and this has allowed the Atlantic to become more active.
So during the next 7-10 days then, we can expect to see a fair amount of rain and at times this is likely to be accompanied by strong winds, gales are likely at times across the North-West of Scotland and North West England. Further South although less windy, there will be spells of heavy rain from time to time. So generally cool, damp and windy with little in the way of sunshine. Beyond that, things settling down a little as a ridge of high pressure builds Northwards close to Western areas.