We’re now at the beginning of October, and as you know from my last blog update, the forecast for October, or at least the beginning of October has now changed, so what can we expect? I’ll also be giving a general update on how I think winter will come along, too.

October Forecast Amendment

Week 1

Week one is expected to be generally unsettled with areas of rain sweeping Eastwards across the United Kingdom. The worst of this rain is expected to be across Western and Northern areas, and is likely to be accompanied by some strong, gale force winds from time to time, particularly across more Northern and Western areas. Flooding could be a problem across South-Western areas.

Week 2

During the course of week two, we expect to see a continuation of the unsettled theme with bands of wet and windy weather sweeping Eastwards across the United Kingdom. However towards the end of this week high pressure is likely to build close to, or over the United Kingdom and we’ll begin to see things turning more settled, perhaps even warm for a short period of time.

Week 3

Although not quite so cold as previously anticipated in our last forecast for October, we do still expect temperatures to drop slightly during this week as high pressure moves into the Atlantic bringing cooler air from the North. Wintry showers will be possible across higher ground in Scotland, however this period is likely to be generally dry, with fog and frost becoming common across Central areas in particular.

Week 4

Similar to week three, high pressure will be dominating however colder air will begin to filter down from the North, and this could introduce the first wintry showers to Eastwards parts of England, initially over higher ground however as the week goes on, I think we could even begin to see wintry showers to lower levels, particularly across more Northern areas.

Winter Months General Outlook

I mentioned at the beginning of this blog that I would be giving another update on how I stand as far as this winter is concerned. Although this forecast is going to outline the general weather patterns I expect in the winter months of December, January and February, my official winter forecast will not be published until the end of this month.

December – Despite previously predicting a slightly milder than average December, I am now more inclined to say that after an average start to the month, winds will switch around to an Easterly direction bringing some very cold air towards the UK. Although I don’t expect to see widespread snow, I do think Eastern parts of England will see a fair amount of snow showers, particularly towards the middle part of the month. Below average in both temperature and rainfall.

January – I don’t expect January to be quite as cold as December, especially across Western areas because the Atlantic will be fighting to get back in, however because of this, I do expect January to see several widespread snow events as Atlantic weather systems come up against the very cold air in place. So although milder air will win from time to time, I expect a January very much like last winter, cold with some widespread snow events.

February – I expect another below average month in terms of temperature, however I do think the Atlantic will have more of an influence during February, especially across Western areas. Further South and East I think it’ll still be generally cold with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow throughout the month.

I will publish my detailed winter forecast at the end of the month. Until then, enjoy whatever the weather throws at us.