The latest model outputs have shown some eye watering charts, and had we been in mid winter I would probably be forecasting a severe cold spell in this blog update. But unfortunately it’s only October. The models during the last couple of days have been forecasting Northern Blocking, when this setup occurs we see winds coming in from the East, and during the winter, this can bring in some very cold air. However, at this time of year, because the continent is still fairly warm it’s unlikely to bring too much in the way of cold weather, we’re more likely to see average temperatures and cloud coming in off the North Sea.

Northern Blocking, high pressure to the North of the United Kingdom bringing in Easterly Winds

Northern Blocking is very likely to become established towards the end of this week, at first its likely to bring some very warm air up from the South, so temperatures could climb back up into the low 20’s as we head towards the end of the week, however I don’t think its likely to last long as through the weekend, winds will switch around to more of a North/North-Easterly direction bringing temperatures back down to average.

Beyond that, it’s still very much up in the air at the moment, however both the NAO and AO are forecast to dive into the negative once again in the next 5 days which increases the chance of high pressure retrogressing Westwards into the Atlantic and towards Greenland bringing the risk of colder air flowing down from the North, as the GFS is currently hinting at in todays model output update.

So during the course of the next week then, things becoming increasingly settled as high pressure builds across the United Kingdom, turning warm or very warm for this time of year for a short period before temperatures return to average. Beyond that, a slight possibility of things turning cooler as winds switch around from the North as we move into next week. I’ll be keeping an eye on developments during the next 5 days or so, and i’ll update the blog on this when things become clearer.