I’ve been watching the models very closely in the last couple of days, and although things are still uncertain, I feel I’ve seen enough to now forecast the first real cold spell of this season between the 16th-21st October. Our October forecast suggested we would see things becoming cooler towards the middle of the month with the possibility of some snow, particularly across Northern areas, and this is what the models have been showing in the last couple of days.

Having said that, the models haven’t exactly been straight forward with the Northerly. Although the models do agree high pressure currently to the North-East of the United Kingdom will retrogress out towards the Atlantic and Greenland, when this happens we see winds coming from the North. The models have been toying with the idea of sending an area of low pressure from Iceland around the area of high pressure, and Southwards into the North Sea dragging in cold air from the Arctic. The models have been showing this on and off, however it does continue to show on the charts which has given me the confidence to now forecast it. Here’s what the models look like.

GFS Model showing a cold Northerly wind
ECM Model showing a cold Northerly wind

Will there be snow, and where? Well, that remains quite uncertain at this stage. Although I am very sure things are going to turn colder, and more autumnal during the next 7-9 days, forecasting snow at this range is very hard to do. The areas that stand the highest chance of seeing snow showers from this setup would be Northern areas, particularly across higher ground. The recent model runs have shown the colder air heading further South across the Midlands and into Southern England, whether this will be the case or not is still uncertain.

So, the most likely outcome will be snow showers across higher ground in the North between 16th-21st October, feeling increasingly cold elsewhere with night time frosts becoming increasingly likely. A slight possibility the cold air will penetrate further South bringing the first wintry showers to areas away from the North. I’ll update you on this forecast in the coming days.