I mentioned in my October forecast that the first real cold spell of the season would come roughly around Mid-Month, and since the release of my October forecast I have been talking about the risk of that said cold spell and it looks like it’s going to be arriving as we head through the course of next week.
Now, exact forecasting is still a little uncertain however one thing that is certain, is that it’ll be turning colder as we head through next week. Through this weekend and into early next week we’re going to see high pressure strengthening in the Atlantic and slowly building Northwards towards Greenland, at the same time a developing area of low pressure over Iceland will push South-Eastwards towards Scandinavia, forcing the area of high pressure North into Greenland, whilst at the same time allowing colder air to move down from the North. You can see this taking place in the image below.
At this stage, it’s still fairly uncertain just how far South the cold air will go, some models are suggesting that the cold air will flood southward across the United Kingdom as we move towards the middle and end of the week, allowing snow showers to develop across Eastern parts of the United Kingdom, however like I said this is still uncertain. What is certain is that as we move through next week it’ll become increasingly colder with showers turning to sleet and snow across higher ground in the North, with only a slight risk of those showers turning wintry further South.
Beyond that, there’s generally agreement that high pressure will collapse South-Eastwards across the United Kingdom, cutting off the colder air.