It’s almost the end of October now, and in the last couple of days I’ve been going through all the different variables to make up this final winter forecast update. This forecast will cover the months November, December, January and February and will hopefully give you some idea of what this winter may have in store for us.


November is likely to start off on a milder note, with low pressure systems coming in off of the Atlantic bringing spells of wet and windy weather particularly across more Northern areas where gale-severe gale force winds will be likely. As we head through the month though I expect high pressure to build towards the North-West of the United Kingdom turning things drier and cooler. Winds will generally be light coming in from a North-North-East direction bringing in colder air, this will bring widespread mist, fog and frost. Light wintry showers will affect Eastern areas, generally dry and settled elsewhere.

Rainfall Below Average

Temperatures Average-slightly below average

Sunshine Above Average


High pressure again likely to be to the West/North West of the United Kingdom keeping things generally blocked so the cooler theme continuing, winds coming in from a more East/North-East direction this time so snow showers beginning to filter further inland. Through the second week of the month I expect low pressure systems to attempt to push around the North of the area of high pressure, bringing spells of snow to more Northern areas, but this will nudge the temperatures up a little here. So the coldest weather being across more Southern areas.

Rainfall Below Average

Temperatures Below average in the South, average in the North

Sunshine above average


Low pressure systems will be more frequent during the course of this month across Northern areas, and with the cold air very close to the United Kingdom this will mean we could see some fairly large snowfalls across Scotland, Northern England and indeed across the Midlands, further South its likely to be drier thanks to the influence of high pressure, however snowfalls are still likely, but they will be less frequent than those in the North. Again its likely to be slightly warmer further North, with the South holding on to the coldest conditions.

Rainfall Below Average in the South, average in the North

Temperatures Below average in the South, average in the North

Sunshine Average


February sees a marked change in our weather, high pressure will finally begin to be eroded by low pressure systems,  and this will mean a warmer month is in store across the country. Low pressure systems again likely to be effecting more Northern areas, some of these low pressure systems could bring some fairly severe weather to Northern areas, so if you’ve been waiting for winter storms, February could be the month for you. At first these low pressure systems are likely to bring widespread heavy snow, but temperatures will gradually begin to warm up, particularly across Northern areas. Further South, generally cool but not as cold as the previous months.

Rainfall Above Average

Temperatures Average-Slightly Above

Sunshine Average-Slightly below

Enjoy the winter, whatever weather it brings.