The Atlantic has been unusually quiet in the last, well, year. I mentioned in a previous article a few days ago that it was looking likely the Atlantic would begin to influence our weather as we move through the course of next week, this is now looking very likely. As we head through the weekend and into next week the area of high pressure to our West that has been keeping our weather settled and cool will push Southwards across the United Kingdom and this will allow low pressure systems to begin pushing into more Northern parts of the United Kingdom. Although everywhere is expected to see some wet weather in the next two weeks, high pressure will remain fairly close to Southern areas, at least for a time so the worst of the wet and windy weather will be across Northern England and Scotland. The main reason for this change in weather is the NAO.
As you can see from the chart above, the NAO is moving into a more neutral/Positive Phase and this will bring the change in our weather conditions. If you think back to the beginning of this month, we had Atlantic driven weather before High Pressure re-established itself in the Atlantic, as you can see, the main cause of that Atlantic weather was the brief rise in the NAO. Although I expect this Atlantic spell to last into early November, I do expect to see a return to blocked, cooler and settled weather as we move through the second week of the month.
So the general forecast for the next couple of weeks then, is that after a few more colder days and widespread frosts this weekend, High Pressure will slip Southwards allowing mild, wet and windy weather to push in from the Atlantic, the worst of this wet and windy weather will likely be across more Northern areas, with the risk of gale force winds.