First off, I’d like to apologise for the lack of updates to the blog in the last week or so, I’ve been moving house and it’s only now that I’ve had my internet re-connected. With that said, our attention now turns not to snow, but to some damaging winds. The current models are suggesting that over the next 7-14 days, we’re going to see areas of low pressure affecting the United Kingdom, and some of these low pressure systems do have the potential to bring some severe, damaging gales to some areas of the United Kingdom.
Exact locations at risk is still greatly under question, and because I haven’t had an internet connection I haven’t been able to follow the models and it’s trends, but there is multi-model support for a period of stormy Autumnal weather. The first noticable system looks likely to come sometime on the 8th/9th November and although early days, the worst affected areas look likely to be across Western areas, Wales, South-West England and later Southern England with gusts possibly reaching 60-70mph in exposed locations.
Beyond that, a ridge of High Pressure looks likely to develop across the United Kingdom turning things a little more settled, before more low pressure systems begin to affect Northern Areas between the 12th-14th November.
ADVANCED WEATHER WARNING ISSUEDValid: Sunday 7th November 13:00 – Monday 8th November 13:00 Issued For: Severe Gales, Heavy Rain
During the afternoon of Sunday 7th November and through until the early afternoon of Monday 8th November, an area of low pressure is expected to push Southwards just to the West of the British Isle, as it does so it’s expected to deepen and this is likely to bring a spell of heavy rain, and severe winds to the areas in the red zone. At this stage, exact tracking and intensity of this system is unclear and I’ll be monitoring the situation over the next couple of days before issuing a final, severe weather warning on Saturday.
The worst affected areas look likely to be across Western Areas, down into Wales and later the South West of England, however Southern Coastal areas will also be at risk as the area of low pressure clears Southwards.
Areas in the red zone, at this stage have been issued with a 65% risk due to the uncertainty of this system, at the moment, these areas stand a moderate risk of seeing gusts in the region of 50-65mph with exposed locations possibly reaching the 70mph mark from time to time. Heavy rain is likely during Sunday night across these areas, which could cause problems for the Monday morning rush hour.
Areas in the purple zone have been issued with a 45% risk due to the uncertainty of this system at the moment, these areas currently stand a low-moderate risk of seeing gusts in the region of 45-55mph. Rain currently isn’t expected to be a problem within this risk zone.