I’ve been keeping a close eye on the weather models in the past couple of days and signs of colder weather continue to show up amongst some of the weather models and it’s starting to become interesting. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation are both showing signs of returning to a negative phase which suggests we’re likely to see high pressure developing across both the Atlantic and Greenland, when this happens our usual low pressure systems are diverted Southwards and we see colder winds coming in from the East and North-East.

North Atlantic Oscillation


Arctic Oscillation

My November forecast suggests that we’re likely to see a much colder second half of November with snow showers affecting Eastern areas, whilst this by no means is set in stone, signals are beginning to increase throughout the models for some colder weather we move towards the last part of the month. The latest GFS model run shows this with high pressure to the North-West of the country and low pressure to the South and East, dragging in colder air from the North East.

Having said that, there are also some signs of high pressure developing over the United Kingdom which would typically bring cold nights with frost and fog around this time of year. So what can we expect over the next 2-3 weeks? Well, high pressure is almost certainly going to develop somewhere close to the United Kingdom so we’ll start to see less influence from the Atlantic, where this high pressure develops will depend whether we see cold arctic air from the North-East, or calm, settled days with fog and frost at night.