I’ve seen enough model runs now to be almost certain of quite a potent and possibly prolonged cold spell as we move through the final weeks of November. As we move through this weekend and into early next week a combination of High Pressure building to the North of the United Kingdom and low pressure to the South of the United Kingdom will draw in increasingly cold air from the East.
At the moment Europe is generally quite warm for this time of year, so although it wont be too cold initially at the beginning of the week, colder air is expected to flood down into Europe from the Arctic and then head towards the UK. Details are still unclear at the moment but I can now be fairly confident that it will turn colder through the period 22nd-30th November with the chances of snow increasing towards the end of the period, particularly across the North and East of the country, but don’t be surprised to see a few wintry showers making their way further inland and indeed further South across East Anglia and the South-East.
It’s still uncertain just how long this cold spell is going to last, when Northern Blocking does become established it usually takes a while before it’s broken down and the Atlantic takes over again, but even then, we usually see some heavy battleground snow before the milder air does make it’s way in, and when it does, Northern Blocking has a tendency to become re-established.
So, the outlook from now towards the end of November is for things to gradually turn colder and increasingly snowy, particularly across the North and East at first, but this perhaps becoming more widespread towards the end of the period.