In the last couple of days since my last article, there has been some rumors amongst the weather forums which are suggesting that this cold spell is no longer likely. Looking at the models, this does not seem to be the case and we are very much still on with the cold spell I forecasted a couple of days ago in my last article.
Having said that, there have been some developments in the models. The High Pressure that’s forecasted on the models has now moved within what we call, the reliable time-frame on the models, so we are very confident we will see High Pressure beginning to develop to our North over the next couple of days and through the weekend and indeed into next week, this will slowly draw in increasingly colder air from the East. The real cold air is unlikely to arrive until Mid-Week onwards, but it will feel gradually cooler from Sunday onwards I think.
The details on this cold spell are still a little unclear. There are three things that still need to be answered.
1. How cold will it get?
2. Will there be snow/Where will it fall?
3. How long will this cold spell last?
There are some disagreements within the ensemble members past November 25th, half of them are predicting milder weather to move in from the Atlantic and the other half are predicting even colder weather to arrive from the East, so it really could go either way at the moment. What we can be sure of at this stage, is that the areas most likely to see some wintry showers, increasingly of snow from Mid-Week onwards are those areas in the North and East, again, snow showers could become more widespread should the cold spell continue as some models are suggesting.