Model Uncertainty – What is the Trend?

December 12, 2010

Weather Forecasts


There has been a lot of confusion in the last couple of days amongst the online weather forums and the cause of that confusion has been the lack of support and consistency amongst the forecasting models. One run seems to produce colder, snowier weather whilst the next run would produce something completely different and milder. If we take a look at the ensembles we can see just how uncertain things are. Remember, the closer the lines the more support there is.


The trend over the next few days is for things to become cooler, but what happens towards the end of this week and beyond becomes very uncertain as the ensembles diverge in different ways at this point. I think the most likely outcome is for colder air to head Southwards, Northern areas look likely to see the heaviest of the snowfall during this cold spell and there does appear to be a fair amount of Precipitation  for Southern Areas this time around too, however there is a fine line between this falling as snow or it falling as rain, and at this stage it’s impossible to say which one it’ll be.

So the general idea is that things are going to become colder once again as we move through the next couple of days and if you live in the North, you should expect to see at least some snowfall, particularly in the second half of the week. For areas further South, there is a rain, sleet and snow risk but pin pointing the areas that are likely to see the snow and the areas that are likely to see the rain will have to wait until we get closer to the forecast period.

I’ll update the blog as soon as we get a clearer idea on whats likely to happen.

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4 Comments on “Model Uncertainty – What is the Trend?”

  1. Stuart Says:

    Daniel Smith – Do you expect a battleground situation around Christmas. Anyway, does Scotland have a good chance of lying or falling snow around Christmas.

    Reply

  2. Daniel Smith Says:

    Hi Stuart. I can’t see anything that suggests a battleground scenario at the moment, but there’s still plenty of time for things to change so I wouldn’t rule it out. The further North you are the better the chance of a White Christmas, so Scotland does have a risk.

    Reply

  3. Stuart Says:

    This potential blizzard situation later this week could be severe if not extreme. I am surprised about the lack of news and warning about it. How will it compare to the snow event which caused lots of distruption last Monday? We’ll need to wain and see!

    Reply

  4. Daniel Smith Says:

    The models have done a huge turn around this afternoon. Todays Ensemble chart shows agreement for very cold temperatures lasting up until Christmas. Because of the flips in the last few days I’m taking it with a pinch of salt, though if the models continue to project this, it could be very interesting indeed.

    I’m not going to say how it will compare just yet, but if what the models are forecasting comes off to be correct, it’ll be much worse.

    Reply

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