There has been a lot of confusion in the last couple of days amongst the online weather forums and the cause of that confusion has been the lack of support and consistency amongst the forecasting models. One run seems to produce colder, snowier weather whilst the next run would produce something completely different and milder. If we take a look at the ensembles we can see just how uncertain things are. Remember, the closer the lines the more support there is.
The trend over the next few days is for things to become cooler, but what happens towards the end of this week and beyond becomes very uncertain as the ensembles diverge in different ways at this point. I think the most likely outcome is for colder air to head Southwards, Northern areas look likely to see the heaviest of the snowfall during this cold spell and there does appear to be a fair amount of Precipitation for Southern Areas this time around too, however there is a fine line between this falling as snow or it falling as rain, and at this stage it’s impossible to say which one it’ll be.
So the general idea is that things are going to become colder once again as we move through the next couple of days and if you live in the North, you should expect to see at least some snowfall, particularly in the second half of the week. For areas further South, there is a rain, sleet and snow risk but pin pointing the areas that are likely to see the snow and the areas that are likely to see the rain will have to wait until we get closer to the forecast period.
I’ll update the blog as soon as we get a clearer idea on whats likely to happen.