I mentioned in an article a few daysa go that I was keeping an eye on the potential for colder weather to return to the United Kingdom towards the end of the month, I also said that it was unlikely to be quite as severe as the previous cold spells we’ve endured across the UK. I’ve just had a look at the computer models and it seems there’s a growing chance of bitterly cold weather pushing down from the North or East and High Pressure becomes re-established to the North-West of the country.

Lets take a look at what the GFS and ECM computer models are currently showing for the 24th January.

The first image shows what the GFS Computer model is currently forecasting. It shows High Pressure building across the Atlantic and up towards Greenland and this allows Low Pressure to push down the Eastern side of the country bringing in bitterly cold air from the North.

The second image shows what the ECM computer model is currently showing High Pressure building towards the North of the country, this sends low pressure systems to the South of the United Kingdom which drags in bitterly cold air from the East, similar to the setup which brought large amounts of snow in the December cold spell, and indeed, similar to the setups of last winter.

Finally, we’ll take a look at the GFS Ensemble members, this gives us an idea of how consistent the GFS model is performing.

For snowfall to fall, typically we need temperatures at this level in the atmposphere to be below -5c, the thick white line on that chart shows the “mean” predicted temperature which does seem to be flirting with the -5c line for quite a large part of the run. The closer all the lines are, the more confident the outcome.

So it does look increasingly likely to turn colder again from the 22nd January onwards, quite which setup we will end up with and how cold it will get is still uncertain and will not become clearer until nearer the time, but if you’re fed up with this Atlantic, mild muck, a change is on the way.

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