It’s been a while since I’ve spouted out weather forecasts, mainly because there’s been nothing interesting to talk about, and the due to the fact that I generally use this blog as a winter one, so updates through Spring and Summer at least, are very occasional. In the last couple of days, a couple of people have asked me about June, saying they’ve heard that it’s likely to be a hot month. This is purely media speculation with no real evidence in the long range to back it up. Lets take a look at the driving dynamics that are likely to affect our weather in the coming weeks.
The NAO. North Atlantic Oscillation is something I refer to a lot in winter, when it’s negative, High Pressure is likely to be situated in the Atlantic. Lets have a look at the NAO forecast
The red lines indicate the forecast for the NAO, and oh look, it’s forecasted to move down into a negative phase, so with this, we can expect to see High Pressure out in the Atlantic on the usual, synoptic weather charts.
Yep, there we go, High Pressure situated out in the Atlantic. So, after the warmth over the next couple of days, High Pressure is likely to push Westwards into the Atlantic switching winds around to more of a Northerly direction. With a setup like this, we can say with a fair amount of confidence that High Pressure will remain in the Atlantic, only really shifting slightly keeping winds generally from a North or North-East direction. So, we can expect June to be slightly more changeable than the last couple of months, with a general mixture of sunshine and showers, though with High Pressure close by, you can never rule out one or two warmer spells. Temperatures generally ranging from 21-26c through the month. Not too hot, but not rubbish, either.
If you have subscribed to receive emails when I update this blog, but you’re generally not interested in summer weather, don’t worry, updates on this blog over the next few months will not be frequent due to the general lack of weather/interest during the summer months. Updates will begin to grow more frequent as we move into October and November, when the chances of cold, and snowy weather will begin to increase, our winter forecast will be released in the middle of October. Happy Summer.