Ice Age on The Way

June 15, 2011

Weather Forecasts


Now that I’ve got the attention grabbing headline out of the way, I can move on. It’s been brought to my attention that many news websites and science websites have been calling for a mini-ice age due to scientists confirming sunspot activity remains very low, despite us heading towards a Solar Maximum Period, and there’s evidence to suggest Solar Activity will continue to decline.

Due to the lack of evidence supporting the theory, it’s hard to say whether we’re heading for a mini-ice age or not. However, the current theory states that decreased Solar Activity leads to more blocking across Greenland and in the Atlantic, which for us in the United Kingdom, will lead to colder, snowier winters.

The low solar activity first started in 2008, which is around the same time we started experiencing colder winters. There’s also something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and in short, this is a cycle between warmer and cooler waters across the Pacific, for the last 30 years or so, the PDO has been in a warm cycle, however in the last couple of years, the cycle has changed to a colder cycle which probably explains the drop in temperatures we’ve been seeing recently.

Taking Low Sunspot Activity and a Colder PDO Cycle into consideration, it does look like we’re entering a phase of colder winters and cooler summers so don’t be surprised to see more in the way of snowfall over the next few years. However, an ice age? Unlikely and a little too extreme.

I’ll be issuing my preliminary winter thoughts at the end of July. My official winter forecast will be issued in October. Until then, enjoy the summer, if it returns.

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5 Comments on “Ice Age on The Way”

  1. Zakos Says:

    Great article! Any initial thoughts on the upcoming winter?

    Reply

  2. Daniel Smith Says:

    Off the record, it looks like La Nina will re-develop towards the end of the year and possibly strengthen as we go through the winter, based on this and a couple of other factors, it looks like we could see a 4th, consecutive cold winter.

    Off the record, it’s really too early to say. My preliminary outlook will be published at the end of next month, when other factors will be looked at, and taken into consideration 🙂

    Reply

  3. Zakos Says:

    Thank you for your reply and yes I also believe next winter will be a cold winter. But also I appreciate it is too far off at present.

    Reply

  4. Snow mad Says:

    I also have been looking at the weather pattern over the last ten years or so and I believe that we are in a cold cycle that could continue for the next five too ten years. I also believe that summers will be a little cooler with the odd very warm spell. So in brief be prepaired for more disruption and freak weather pattern over the next couple of years

    Reply

  5. adrian Says:

    hi has anyone seen a start to Autumn in there area of the uk ?

    Reply

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