Now that I’ve got the attention grabbing headline out of the way, I can move on. It’s been brought to my attention that many news websites and science websites have been calling for a mini-ice age due to scientists confirming sunspot activity remains very low, despite us heading towards a Solar Maximum Period, and there’s evidence to suggest Solar Activity will continue to decline.
Due to the lack of evidence supporting the theory, it’s hard to say whether we’re heading for a mini-ice age or not. However, the current theory states that decreased Solar Activity leads to more blocking across Greenland and in the Atlantic, which for us in the United Kingdom, will lead to colder, snowier winters.
The low solar activity first started in 2008, which is around the same time we started experiencing colder winters. There’s also something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and in short, this is a cycle between warmer and cooler waters across the Pacific, for the last 30 years or so, the PDO has been in a warm cycle, however in the last couple of years, the cycle has changed to a colder cycle which probably explains the drop in temperatures we’ve been seeing recently.
Taking Low Sunspot Activity and a Colder PDO Cycle into consideration, it does look like we’re entering a phase of colder winters and cooler summers so don’t be surprised to see more in the way of snowfall over the next few years. However, an ice age? Unlikely and a little too extreme.
I’ll be issuing my preliminary winter thoughts at the end of July. My official winter forecast will be issued in October. Until then, enjoy the summer, if it returns.