July Weather Outlook

June 20, 2011

Weather Forecasts


Where’s summer gone? The warm, dry and settled spring that we were enjoying has been replaced by cooler, slightly damper, cloudier weather this month, and there’s really no sign of that changing as we move through the final part of this month and into next month. I’ve just been looking over some of the long range models and there’s still no sign of any prolonged, exceptional heat. Lets take a look at some of the models;

The image above shows the very latest North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, if you look towards the Atlantic ocean, you’ll see its largely covered with blue, that shows us that the Atlantic is currently colder than average, probably not helped by the La Nina we can see in the Pacific Ocean. These colder Sea Temperature anomalies suggest there will be High Pressure in the Atlantic. You can see the much colder anomalies towards the Western Side of the Atlantic Ocean, over towards America, and this is where I expect High Pressure to be situated as we move towards the end of this month, and through into next month, which means we’ll see Low Pressure positioned just to the West of the United Kingdom, which is exactly what the models are showing.

The image above shows Atmospheric Pressure anomalies, and shows High Pressure in the Western Atlantic, and low pressure just to the West of the United Kingdom, which is what we expect to see based on the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. Here is what the GFS model is currently forecasting for later this month.

High Pressure in the Western Atlantic, Low Pressure close to the United Kingdom, which supports both of the things we’ve already talked about above.

So as we move into July, we can expect this cool, showery theme to continue with Low Pressure relatively close by, temperatures likely to be around average, rainfall also likely to be around average. So no exceptional heat is looking likely at this early stage.

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2 Comments on “July Weather Outlook”

  1. Aaron Says:

    Yet again there is awful weather for Northern Ireland. Every spring i check the long range weather hoping for a good summer in N.I for a change but it never happens. The highest temperature i have recorded here in Belfast this year is 23*c. Is there anything for me too look forward too??? or will it be like this until Autumn. Is there any information you can give me that will show a good spell of warm settled weather for Northern Ireland??

    Reply

  2. Daniel Smith Says:

    I’m afraid not. Summer looks to be a write off for much of the United Kingdom, and sadly that includes Northern Ireland. Due to High Pressure over the Arctic, the Jet Stream is further South than it should be, which is stopping the Azores High from being able to develop, and this keeps the hot weather to our South.

    There does seem a slight possibility of warmer weather during the second half of July, but it’s quite slim. Any “hot” weather will be limited to a couple of days being quickly replaced by cooler, showery weather.

    Reply

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