August Washout or August Warmth?

July 17, 2011

Weather Forecasts


The summer months are usually referred to as June, July and August. We’re now into the second half of July and bar one or two short lived hot spells, summer so far has been rather unimpressive with generally a cool and showery theme. The main reason for this poor summer weather and lack of warmth is down to the position of the Jet Stream.

Since the beginning of May the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation have generally been in the negative, and when this happens we see High Pressure in the Atlantic and across Greenland, this forces the Jet Stream to the South of the UK which unfortunately, also stops any real, prolonged heat reaching the British Isle.

What many heat lovers will want to know is, is this weather pattern likely continue as we move through into August? Its tricky to say. The current pattern we’re in usually takes quite a lot to shift, and can last many months, however long term models and trends are beginning to hint at a change as we move through into August.

Current thinking is that as we move into the final part of July and into August, High Pressure will finally begin to shift from the Atlantic and weaken over Greenland allowing the Jet Stream to move further Northwards, into a more normal position for this time of year, this will also allow a weak-moderate area of High Pressure to develop just East of the United Kingdom, keeping Atlantic Weather systems at bay and allowing more settled, warmer weather to reach the British Isle.

However, because the High Pressure that looks likely to develop to our East will only be weak-moderate, exceptional heat is not expected and temperatures overall through August, are likely to be around average with the best of the sunshine and warm weather across South-Eastern England, the wettest weather being across the North-West.

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