August Forecast Update

August 1, 2011

Weather Forecasts


A while ago I posted my thoughts on August and said that High Pressure was likely to develop to the East bringing a much warmer, settled month. Although this has happened, and will bring some much warmer weather along with some thunderstorms for the next week or so, it looks like High Pressure to our East will be weaker than I initially thought. I do still believe that we’ll see more frequent warmer spells through August. But I think the general cool, showery theme we’ve been seeing for the past couple of months will continue to dominate. Lets take a look at some of the models.

The above shows the latest NAO and AO teleconnections. The forecast is for them both to remain in the negative, and this means High Pressure will be typically dominant across the Atlantic and in the Arctic keeping the Jet Stream South and really hindering any chances of prolonged warmth. We can see on the Long Range CFS models too, that August is likely to come in below average temperature wise with slightly above average rainfall. Keeping in line with what the above is showing us.

Left hand side shows predicted rainfall values. Green shows slightly above average rainfall. Right hand side shows pressure anomalies, and places a very weak High Pressure to our East.

If we then take a look at the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies below, we can see very cold water temperatures to the South-West of the UK and slightly above average to the North-West. This suggests an area of low pressure dominating just to our North-West, keeping things cool and showery, though with weak High Pressure to our East, thundery showers are likely as these two warmer and cooler air-masses collide.

August Weather:

Overall, August is likely to be similar to the past two months with a general showery, cool theme. Though with a weak High Pressure to our East, we will see the occasional warm 2-3 days, probably generating some heavy thundery showers thanks to the Low Pressure to our North-East. Temperatures likely to be below average, with rainfall around/slightly above the average. So once again, not really a month for any prolonged heat.

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