The latest Long Range Models and teleconnection outputs are continuing to suggest a cold but dry start to winter. At this stage in time, it’s likely that November and December will continue the run of below average temperatures meaning winter is likely to be early again this year with High Pressure developing to the North/North-West of the UK drawing in bitterly cold air from the North and East.

ENSO La Nina forecasts are continuing to forecast a weak La Nina at the beginning of winter, before strengthening as we move into the second half of the winter, as La Nina strengthens High Pressure is likely to sink Southwards giving us a slightly milder, but settled second half to winter, once again similar to last year.

 

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