Ex Hurricane Katia is now looking very likely to become absorbed into the flow of the Jet Stream, causing it to head towards the United Kingdom. At this moment in time, the exact tracking is unknown due to differences and variations within the models. However, it does look likely to track somewhere between Iceland and Scotland, depending on just how far South it does track depends on whether Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England sees some severe weather early next week.
The images above show roughly where Katia is forecasted to be on Saturday. The second image shows just how strong Katia currently is, as it’s beginning to effect the flow of the Jet Stream. Katia will then continue to track North-Eastwards towards Scotland, depending on the positioning of the Jet Stream will depend on its tracking, though somewhere just to the North of Scotland seems likely at this stage. As Katia becomes absorbed into the Jet Stream flow, a Jet Streak is likely to develop helping to stop Katia from weakening, and may even strengthen Katia for a time as it passes to the North of Scotland.
Current variations in the model output guidance makes it hard for us to determine the exact track. Though it does seem probable that parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and perhaps Northern England will be affected by heavy rainfall and Strong Gale Force winds on Monday 12th September. We are therefore issuing an Early Weather Advisory.
**Weather Advisory Issued**
Issued For: Strong Winds and Heavy Rain
Valid: Monday 12th September – Tuesday 13th September
Over the next couple of days and through the weekend, Ex-Tropical Hurricane Katia will become embedded within the Jet Stream and track North-Eastwards towards the United Kingdom. Current model guidance suggests Katia will pass to the North-West of the United Kingdom. Heavy rain and strong gale force winds, gusting in the region of 60-75mph seem possible for exposed locations across North-West Scotland, Central Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Structural damage and localized flooding cannot be ruled out as this storm passes. Due to the uncertainty of the precise tracking and severity of the weather, an advisory is being issued, however this is likely to be updated to a weather warning or severe weather warning in the coming days, when the exact tracking of Katia becomes clearer.