Ex-Hurricane Katia Update

September 8, 2011

Weather Forecasts, Weather Warnings


**UK STORM WATCH IN EFFECT**

Due to the potential dangers that Ex-Hurricane Katia poses, I have decided to issue a UK Storm Watch. This means updates on Katias tracking and potentially effected areas will be posted on a day to day basis up to the event.

Current model guidance continues to throw a few spanners in the works as to forecasting Katias tracking, many models are still keen on Katia tracking just to the North of Scotland, bringing the worst of the Weather to North-Western, Western and Central Scotland, with Northern England also at risk from seeing some gale force winds.

Hurricane Katia forecast for Sunday 11th September

Hurricane Katia forecast for Monday 12th September

Hurricane Katia forecast for Tuesday 13th September

So, whilst the exact tracking is still a little uncertain, I think the most likely outcome is for Ex Hurricane Katia to skirt Northern Scotland. Taking a look at another model called the ECMWF, we see a completely different picture

Hurricane Katia forecast as per the ECMWF

As we can see from the above image, the ECM model brings Katia further South into Scotland, shifting the worst of the winds to Southern parts of England. It’ll need more monitoring to see whether this is a rouge run. Based on the latest outputs, I am extending my advisory to include parts of Northern England and Southern Scotland, and upgrading Northern and Western Scotland to a weather warning.

**Weather Warning Issued**

Issued for: Strong Gale Force Winds, gusting in excess of 75MPH

Valid: Monday 12th September

Yesterday, a weather advisory was issued for parts of Northern, North-Western and Central Scotland. Based on todays model guidance, we have extended our advisory section to include Southern Scotland and Northern England and upgraded Northern Scotland to a weather warning.

Ex Hurricane Katia is continuing to be forecast to strengthen as it heads towards the UK, although exact tracking is still uncertain, the most likely track at this time is for the center of Ex-Hurricane Katia to pass just to the North of Scotland, bringing severe gale force winds with gusting in excess of 75mph to Northern Scotland, Western Scotland and into parts of Central Scotland. Structural damage and possible localized flooding cannot be ruled out, the areas mentioned above have been issued with a weather warning, this may be upgraded to a severe weather warning if deemed necessary.

Due to Ex-Hurricane Katia’s possible track, I have extending the advisory zone. Southern Scotland and Northern England have been issued with a weather advisory as a pre-cautionary measure. Heavy rain and gusting in excess of 45mph seem likely at this stage, however any minor changes to Katias tracking could see this area upgraded to a weather warning in the coming days, if deemed necessary.

An Update on the situation will be issued at 4PM on Friday 9th September.

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