October 2011 Outlook

September 18, 2011

Weather Forecasts


October is looking to bring a change in weather patterns across the United Kingdom. Medium range weather models are predicting High Pressure to build over the United Kingdom/Slightly to the East of the UK towards the end of September, so there are increasing signals that October will start on a dry, and fairly warm note, so those hoping for some sort of Indian summer, could be in with some luck.

Lets take a look at the NAO/AO

The NAO as we move into October is forecasted to be neutral/Weakly Negative, this would suggest a generally quiet Atlantic with High Pressure over the United Kingdom. The AO is forecasted to be neutral/Weakly Positive, this would suggest a weak Low Pressure will be across the Arctic,which is likely to lock in that colder air across the poles.

The chart above shows us the Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, if we take a look at the Atlantic we have cold water anomalies to the South-West of the UK, this would suggest High Pressure will build in the Atlantic, keeping things relatively settled as we move into October.

Conclusion:

Taking the above into consideration. October is likely to begin on a dry and quite mild note with temperatures perhaps peaking at around 20-24c, though this warmth is expected to be short lived. As we move into the second week of October High Pressure will begin to build to the North-West of the United Kingdom, this will send Low Pressure systems Southwards into Europe allowing an East/North-East wind to develop across the United Kingdom, this will bring in a fair amount of cloud and drizzle across many areas, feeling quite cool along Eastern areas with temperatures likely to be below average everywhere.

With Low Pressure over the Arctic, a complete Atlantic block is unlikely to develop, this may allow occasional areas of Low Pressure to skirt Southern England bringing more organized spells of rain. As the near continent continues to cool through the month, we will see slightly cooler air moving in across the UK which may allow some drizzly showers to turn to sleet and snow, particularly over higher ground.

Temperatures: Below Average

Rainfall: Below Average

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8 Comments on “October 2011 Outlook”

  1. Stuart Says:

    I’m hoping for a mixed October with warm start, sunny middle and cold end.

    I would also like to see my first October snowfall ever aswell as the first frost of the Autumn.

    Any hints of a frost, cold spell or even snow in the next month?

    Reply

  2. susannah Says:

    So if your forecast is correct it will be a below average temperature in October ..um..does that increase the chances of seeing a below average November/December?

    My preference would be for cold – however rain also suits me as well.

    Reply

  3. Daniel Smith Says:

    @Stuart – With High Pressure over or close to the UK, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some frosty starts to the morning. If we do see any snow next month, it will be in the form of one or two flakes blowing in the wind towards the end of the month, I can’t see anything significant.

    @Susannah – Whilst some believe that monthly weather patterns are linked, I haven’t found any evidence to suggest that they are. A cold October doesn’t necessarily mean a cold November/December. Take last winter for example, we saw a very cold December, a cold January, and quite a mild February.

    Reply

  4. Lilly Says:

    Daniel, do you think we see see a return of last years really harsh winter – ie snow & heavy frosts for extended periods? I’m in East Anglia

    Reply

  5. chris Says:

    can we expect to see some significant snowfall this winter?? i loved it so much last year are we expecting a repeat or is it going to be a boring warm winter with wind and rain?? also im hearing high pressure at end of sept going into october can you confirm this will happen if so that would be awsum.

    Reply

  6. Daniel Smith Says:

    My winter forecast can be seen here

    https://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201011/

    As for the end of September/October. High Pressure is continuing to be forecasted for the end of the month and into October bringing some warmth. I’m just about to put out an article highlighting this. Thanks for your comments 🙂

    Reply

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. October Weather Outlook Re-Visited « UK Weather Forecasts - October 3, 2011

    […] Back in September I issued my October Forecast which hinted that after a very warm start to the month, High Pressure would develop to our North-West turning things much cooler, the latest computer models are now placing High Pressure further South and over the United Kingdom, changing the prognosis somewhat. You can view my orgiginal October Forecast by clicking HERE […]

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