Remaining Unsettled, then Change?

October 26, 2011

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I mentioned in my winter forecast that November was likely to start off rather mild and unsettled with low pressure in charge, that will remain the case. In the last couple of days High Pressure has developed over Europe and this has caused Low Pressure systems to become slow moving across the United Kingdom bringing some spells of heavy rain to most, and windy weather to some.

During the next 10-15 days or so, I think we’ll see a continuation of this pattern, the 500mb anomaly charts reflect this in continuing to show Low Pressure over the United KIngdom.

As we move into the early part of November, I think we’ll see High Pressure weaken over Europe allowing Low Pressure systems to track further South, extending the wet and windy weather to just about the entire United Kingdom. The NAO and AO are continuing to forecast a generally positive/neutral setup, which is ideal for Low Pressure across the Atlantic and indeed, over the Arctic.

So, over the next 10-15 days Low Pressure systems will continue to dominate bringing further wet and windy weather across the UK, High Pressure weakening over Europe as we move into the early part of November will allow these low pressure systems to track further South, effecting a larger part of the country.

Beyond then, I think we’ll begin to see a pattern change with High Pressure beginning to develop in the Mid-Atlantic sending the NAO negative, this could start to introduce some cooler, more arctic air bringing the risk of some snowfall from the middle of November onwards.

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