Pattern Change Update

November 4, 2011

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Whilst todays models generally aren’t too interested in changing the pattern we’re currently stuck in, upstream teleconnections are more keen and now seem to be hinting slightly more towards a pattern change as we move towards the middle of November. I’ve previously spoken about the NAO and AO and how we ideally need both of these to be negative to bring colder, snowier weather to the United Kingdom, today both of these are hinting at dropping into the negative towards Mid-Month, as the chart below shows.

This would suggest High Pressure over the Arctic and indeed, in the Atlantic which is positive if you’re looking forward to seeing colder, snowier weather.

Another teleconnection we can look at is the MJO, which is currently forecasted to move towards a weak phrase 1, the composits for this are High Pressure towards the North, and Low Pressure over, or South of the United Kingdom.

So, the signs are there and are indeed, increasing for a pattern change as we move towards the middle of November and indeed, beyond. It’s important to remember though at these are computer models and like all weather models, they can change in an instant. If the forecast remains the same in the computer models for the next 4-5 days, then I think we can become a little more confident about a change in the outlook.

 

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