Things Remain Tentative

November 9, 2011


Forecasting in the longer term at the moment is proving to be fairly difficult, the reason being is that certain teleconnections are hinting at a pattern change, whilst short term weather models are continuing to model High Pressure being stuck over Europe and Low Pressure in the Atlantic.

As we go through this week, we’ll continue to see this pattern hold bringing further above average weather with temperatures perhaps hitting 16c later on in the week, the average for this time of year is 10c, one again it’ll be wettest in the West and driest in the East, where we’ll be under the influence of our stubborn European High Pressure.

Beyond then things become fairly uncertain, the NAO/AO are both currently forecasted to remain neutral, which isn’t particularly favourable for a pattern change, at least for a couple of weeks. 500MB anomaly charts do hint at a change, but again, they do show High Pressure generally close, or over the United Kingdom keeping things generally settled and boring.

I’ve been forecasting a pattern change towards the middle of November and based on latest model projections, that’s now looking increasingly unlikely, instead, I think High Pressure is likely to remain across Europe for the next 10 days keeping things generally mild, however, slight shifts in the High Pressure is likely to bring about one or two colder, frosty nights, too.

If you’re looking for cold and snow, unfortunately if you’re a snow lover, you may have to wait until December for any major changes in that direction, and unfortunately if this outlook does turn out to be correct, the first part of my winter forecast will be very wrong.

I’ll continue to monitor the situation and update when neccesary.



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3 Comments on “Things Remain Tentative”

  1. Daniel Says:

    306maxi from the DM discussion forum. Keep up the good work 🙂 I do hope it’s going to be cold……


  2. Sue Says:

    It will be interesting to see how this pans out, one UK long range forecaster whose forecast I bought in Nov forecasts heavy falls of snow in eastern UK and very cold temps from late Nov into Dec. So we’ii keep our eyes peeled. Though I do fly off on my holidays to the caribean on 14th will I be flying back to winter chaos! Lol


  3. snowangel Says:

    My respect for you for acknowledging Nov will not turn out as you originally forecast has grown considerably. No-one should expect a long range forecast to be 100% correct as there are so many variables (and you’re discussion of the model predictions and how this shapes your thoughts is useful for a learner like me) but forecasters don’t do themselves any favours when they refuse to acknowledge their forecast didn’t come off. I look forward to more of your updates…. And hope for a cold and snowy winter!


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