For those of you hoping this blog entry would bring hope of cold and snow, unfortunately you’re going to be disappointed. Looking at the teleconnections, both the NAO/AO are forecasted to become quite strongly positive, so we’re likely to see Low Pressure really establishing itself across the Arctic and indeed, in the Atlantic which will really help ramp up the Jet Stream
Whilst the worst possible setup for cold and snowfall, it will finally shift that European High Pressure block and allow some more variable weather across the United Kingdom, temperatures slightly above average with periods of rain and wind at times, though between low pressure systems they’ll be blustery showers. High Pressure to the South may keep the South drier, with the worst of the unsettled weather across the North. GFS and ECM 500MB show this perfectly, and are in agreement
With Polar Stratospheric Temperatures still below average, we could see this pattern become established for the next couple of weeks, putting the best chance of any cold after Mid-December.