Cold Snap Just Around the Corner?

November 28, 2011


You’ll notice in the title that I’ve mentioned the words “Cold Snap” rather than “Cold Spell” as the models are beginning to hint at some cooler conditions pushing Southwards across the country behind an area of Low Pressure as we move towards the end of the first week of December, in the longer range models however there is currently nothing to suggest we’ll see a prolonged spell of cold and wintry weather.

Both the GFS and ECM computer models are hinting at this, as you can see below

The above two charts are generally in agreement for the 7th of December and that’s to see Low Pressure pushing in across Scandi allowing colder, Arctic air to flood across the United Kingdom from the North.

Now it’s important to bear in mind that currently, these are the only realistic models to show this outcome and because this setup is still a little over a week away, it’s impossible to say for sure whether it WILL happen, but confidence is beginning to grow as we move closer towards this time period. Given the current setup we’re in, the above charts are not completely out of the question.

Currently however, there are no signs of any prolonged, severe cold and snowy weather like we saw last November and December.



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6 Comments on “Cold Snap Just Around the Corner?”

  1. sara Says:

    hi, just wanted to say, there are some very silly people out there who need to comment using offensive language on a blog post about the weather, i would also like to say how disappointed i am, i want snow lol, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow lol, gonna keep checking back to your site though, hoping for some good news soon lol. keep it up x


  2. Jake Says:

    you said it wud be mild to mid december. people lost interest in your **** now as you keep swapping and changin

    **Note: This comment has been edited to remove offensive language. If it continues, you will be banned from commenting**


    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Hi Jake, thanks for the swearing, always appreciated!

      What I actually said was this, I have quoted below.

      “With Polar Stratospheric Temperatures still below average, we could see this pattern become established for the next couple of weeks, putting the best chance of any cold after Mid-December”

      I never stated that we would NOT see cold weather, however what we are going to be seeing or looks like we could see in early December will be nothing more than a 3-4 day cold snap, with any snowfall likely to be confined across more Northern and Western areas.

      The weather is very dynamic, chopping, changing and updating forecasts comes with the territory. All major organisations do this constantly.

      Thanks for commenting. Any further foul language will result in an immediate blocking of your IP address.


  3. john Says:

    hi daniel i watch the ao and nao a lot im no expert but they are at plus 4 now for the ao index and looks like it keeps going up for the next 14 days.
    Can you tell me is this a record high for the ao i have never seen it so high
    also do you think it could start to dip any time soon
    thanks great website you always give good forecasts same last year too


    • Daniel Smith Says:

      Hi John, nice to see you commenting again!

      I’m not entirely sure what the record high for the AO is, I haven’t got much time at the moment but I’ll look into it and get back to you! It’s hard to tell whether it’ll dip soon, theres currently so suggesting that it will, so prolonged, cold weather seems unlikely for at least the next 3 weeks, perhaps we’ll have more luck as we move into January.


  4. Tony Says:

    I live in Finland, and today 1st of December, it is the law to put winter tyres on yet it is 6 degrees out! Even in Lapland it is +1’s and +2’s, which for the 1st December is frankly alarming as they usually get their first snow fall in October! Where I am, winter is 3 weeks late so not too alarming, but if it doesn’t arrive soon I will truly worry. Having said that winter ended VERY late this year, infact the Baltic sea near me was still frozen mid april and it also snowed in April. So maybe it is Earths natural cycle, if Winter ends late, it will start late? Excellent blog, I have subscribed.


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