November Forecast Review

December 13, 2011

Weather Forecasts


I said a few weeks back that I’d be making a review of my November Forecast, analysing what went wrong and why, when it comes to Long Range Forecasting for our part of the world it can be incredibly hard due to our position and Latitude, we have a huge landmass to one side of us, and a huge ocean to the other side and this gives us some very dynamic weather, we also have Jet Streams to contend with which just makes Long Range forecasting even more complicated, my November forecast turned out to be completely wrong, and December is also turning out to be wrong too, I’ll review Decembers forecast at the end of the month.

Here’s what I forecasted for November back on October 16th.

November:

After a generally unsettled, milder start to the month, High Pressure will quickly begin to develop towards the North and West of the United Kingdom bringing in much cooler continential air, the first snowfalls will begin to affect Northern and Eastern England, quickly spreading to produce widespread heavy snowfall with temperatures struggling to get above freezing, the cold isnt likely to be as intense as November 2010 however, with temperatures recovering from time to time, before becoming freezing again. Worst of the snowfall is likely to fall in the North and East of England.

Now, whilst November did indeed start off generally mild with some rainfall across parts of the United Kingdom, High Pressure then developed across mainland Europe giving us Southerly winds for a large majority of the month, and this produced one of the warmest Novembers for a number of years, completely going against what I’d forecasted. Unfortunately, at the time of forecasting there was little indication that High Pressure would develop to the East of the United Kingdom, in fact a large majority of Long Range Forecasting models were pointing towards High Pressure in the Atlantic to the North-West of the country, hence the much colder forecast. Long Range forecasting is more of an art than a science, sometimes everything can go perfectly, and sometimes things can go wrong leading to a complete opposite outcome, as this has proved.

When the weather models for November are archieved, they will be placed into this post for future reference.

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2 Comments on “November Forecast Review”

  1. michael haydon Says:

    don’t worry, you weren’t the only one caught out by ealier models all predicting an Arctic blast, back in early november, The Daily Express hyped that all up as usual, with headlines saying -20C and heavy snow fall in weeks! , lol! thats well gone by its sell by date:) But the succession of these nasty storms, can suddenly produce the unexpected, and at anytime, one of these could turn everything into a Northerly blast. thats the UK for you, people think its easy, like in the USA to predict our weather, it isn’t, because the states, has known geology, airmasses and the great lakes moisture, which provide quite accurate forecasts. Atlantic Storms and fronts that come in from the atlantic are probably the only type of weather any forecasters can predict up to 80% accuracy here.

    let it snow let it snow:)

    Reply

  2. Ann Shepherd Says:

    I am new to this site but I love your forecasts and am not at all phased when they are not accurate. Its usually better than you thought it would be.

    Reply

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