Snow Emphasis Shifts

December 15, 2011

Weather Forecasts


I realise this is very much a “nowcast” so to speak, but the very latest computer models have shifted the potential snowfall further East, and it’s now looking likely to effect the South-West, South and South-East Midlands down into London and parts of the South-East as the latest NAE snow/rainfall prediction model shows below.

This all ties in with an area of Low Pressure pushing Eastwards through the English channel through the course of tonight and tomorrow. Whilst all areas are likely to see rainfall at first, as the colder air begins to interact with the Low Pressure system and dig down it’ll begin turning increasingly to snow, initially over higher ground but perhaps even down to lower levels too.

Accumulations of up to 10cm seem likely across areas above 100m, below this, localised accumulations of 2-5cm are possible, but I don’t think it’s likely to cause too much in the way of disruption, below I’ve created a graphic taking into account the very latest model output guidance.

Click to Enlarge

 

Areas in the Red 70% Risk Zone likely to see accumulations of up to 10cm above 100M. Below could see 2-5cm locally. It will fall initially as rain, but will begin to turn to snow through the early hours of the morning.

Areas in Yellow 40% Risk zone likely to see a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow, areas above 100m likely to see accumulations of 5-10cm, below, 2-4cm locally, but generally settling to lower levels isn’t expected.

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