No Sign of Prolonged Cold – January Outlook

December 30, 2011

Weather Forecasts


I hope everyone had an amazing Christmas, despite the lack of snowfall! The new year is now upon us, so what type of weather can we expect to see over the next couple of weeks?

If you’re a cold and snow fan, then unfortunately there’s currently nothing in the models to suggest any prolonged cold or snow, despite what some other forecasters are saying. In fact, what we’re likely to see through the first week of January is a mixed bag of whether, generally cool with spells of rain and severe gales, particularly across Scotland and Northern England, this will be followed by a short period of colder weather which may produce some snowfall across higher areas in the North towards the middle/end of next week.

Beyond that however, there’s a signal for High Pressure to develop in the Atlantic, extending across the United Kingdom keeping things slightly above average, and somewhat drier through the first half of the month. Lets see what some of the models say;

The chart above shows the NAO/AO forecast as we move into the new year and first part of January, the NAO is forecasted to fall into a neutral/weak negative state which does indicate High Pressure in the Atlantic, however the signal is for a Western Based -NAO and this means High Pressure will be situated close to, or over the UK. The AO is forecasted to move more into neutral/weakly positive territory, but with the Polar Stratosphere Temperatures still way below average, we’re unlikely to see much change in the Polar Vortex, as can be seen on the chart below.

The chart below shows us the 500hPa anomly charts

The chart above shows that there’s a strong signal, and agreement with High Pressure situated somewhere to the South or South-West of the United Kingdom, and Low Pressure to the North, this will generally bring drier and milder conditions, particularly across Southern and Central areas, further North it’ll be cooler with rain from time to time. Now we’ve covered some of the science behind it, here’s the forecast;

January Outlook

As we move through the first week of January it’ll become slightly cooler with a spell of wet and very windy weather across Northern parts of the United Kingdom, further South not quite as windy but we will see spells of rain moving through, colder air will flow down behind a deep area of Low Pressure which may bring some snowfall to higher areas across the country, as we move into the second week and beyond, the signal is for High Pressure to develop across the United Kingdom bringing drier and milder conditions across Southern and Central areas, but cooler and perhaps damp weather across more Northern Areas. High Pressure may shift around from time to time to give snow to higher ground in the North, but there’s currently no signal within the models to suggest any severe, prolonged cold weather for January.

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