I mentioned in a previous article that there was a chance we could see some colder weather around the end of January/Early February and todays models continue to show that being the case, having said that it’s quite a complex setup and one the models are having some trouble getting to grips with and it does look like it’ll take at least two attempts to get any real cold weather to our shores, let me explain.
Below is the ECM computer model for Tuesday 31st January
So as early as the beginning of next week, we have Heights building to our North East and this will allow colder weather to push Westwards towards the United Kingdom through Sunday and into Early next week, this may give some snow flurries to Eastern parts but I think for the time being, cold and dry is the most likely theme, at least for early next week.
As the week goes on, we see an area of High Pressure develop over the United Kingdom, and whilst we continue to see Easterly winds, this High Pressure keeps those winds fairly slack which means the colder air will begin to become more stagnant and perhaps less cold for a time.
It’s after this period however that the models tend to diverge and uncertainty becomes an issue with the forecast. The ECM wants to open up the flood gates from the East and allow some VERY cold air across the United Kingdom, this having the potential to bring some widespread, heavy snowfall as we move towards NEXT weekend the charts below indicate this.
The GFS however, another computer model that we use, takes things in a slightly different direction, we’ll take next Sunday as a marker again, to highlight the differences between these two models, below are the GFS charts
Whilst the GFS does indeed bring the cold air to the United Kingdom, it’s evolution about it is much different and would result in cold, but largely dry weather across the United Kingdom, so there’s still a long way to go before we know exactly what’s likely to happen.
Through the weekend it will be largely dry and cold, widespread night time frosts and fog patches are likely to develop, there’s always a chance of one or two snow flurries across the Eastern side of the United Kingdom but it’s unlikely to cause any disruption, as we move through Sunday night and into Monday though, an area of rain will begin to work its way in across Western areas and with cold in place, this may turn to snow across Wales, North-West England and perhaps even down into South-West England for a time, accumulations most likely over higher ground and this is likely to fall as a mixture of rain, sleet and snow to lower levels.
As we move through the first part of the week it will remain largely dry and cold, once again always the chance of one or two light snow flurries in the East and South-East but this never amounting to very much. Beyond this the forecast becomes uncertain and one of three things could happen;
1. The milder air wins out and it becomes much milder and unsettled.
2. It becomes even colder still, but remains generally dry bar one or two light snow flurries
3. It becomes colder still, but heavy snowfall begins to effect large parts of the country.
Either one of the outcomes above are possible as we move through into the first part of February, as always we’ll keep you updated.