Snow Risk Extends

March 3, 2012

Weather Forecasts


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Earlier on today I issued a weather warning and mentioned the risk of snowfall, the weather warning for heavy rain and strong winds remains in force and can be viewed by clicking HEREhowever since issuing that forecast the models have updated and they’ve shown the snow risk to be more widespread than initially thought, whilst accumulations are still considered very unlikely away from higher ground, I feel it’s still worth a mention for those snow lovers out there.

The map to the left highlights where the rain is likely to turn to snow through the course of Sunday afternoon and into the evening, there’s still some uncertainty within the models just when it will begin to turn to snow, so the map should be taken as a guide rather than a forecast.

A setup like this is very complex and difficult to forecast, we have an area of Low Pressure with much milder air wrapped around it pulling colder air Southwards, as this colder air begins to undercut and mix out the milder air the rain can then begin to turn to snow, unfortunately models struggle with this setup, a very light temperatures variation can be the difference between rain and snow.

When forecasting this setup in the short term we tend to look at Higher Resolution computer models such as the NAE and NMM, unfortunately this evening both of these models are showing slightly different things with regards to timing of this system but both generally agree on where the snow will turn to rain, and that has been highlighted on the map.

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