Mid-March Warmth?

March 4, 2012

Weather Forecasts


In line with my March forecast, the models are becoming increasingly consistent with forecasting High Pressure over the United Kingdom towards the middle of the month bring some much warmer, spring like weather. At the moment the exact positioning of the High Pressure is uncertain with some models progging the center to be further North, whilst other computer models forecast High Pressure to be across more Southern parts of the UK, it’s positioning will depend how warm temperatures get, and how far North the milder and dry weather spreads.

Lets take a look at some models, below is the GEFS Ensemble Suite for both London and Aberdeen

London ENS Members, the top chart dictates surface temperatures and the bottom chart shows Pressure Predictions, there's a fair amount of support for High Pressure to be in control which suggests drier weather

 

Aberdeen ENS - The first chart again shows temperature and the second shows Pressure, there is a fair amount of support for High Pressure to be in control around Mid-Month onwards

If we took the above charts at face value, it would suggest High Pressure centered closer to Scotland bringing in slightly above average temperatures to more Northern areas and quite likely a fair amount of cloud with the best of the warmer weather across Southern areas. However, if we take a look at the ECM Ensemble Members, we see a slightly different story

This chart shows the different ensemble members prediction for the same timeframe, a majority point to High Pressure across the South of the UK

The above chart is more indicative of High Pressure across more Southern parts leading to drier, warmer weather here whilst Scotland and Northern England see slightly cooler, damper weather coming in off of the Atlantic, this would be more in line with my March prediction.

So still early days yet, but there is now growing confidence within the models for a settled, warmer period as we move towards the middle of the month.

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