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May started off on a cool, showery note but as the month progressed High Pressure developed and we’ve seen some very warm, above average temperatures with sunshine just about everywhere, but what can we expect as we move through into June? I’ll be taking a look at the various medium term weather models and come to a conclusion on the most likely weather pattern for the month ahead.

Firstly, lets take a look at the NAO and AO projected forecasts, click on the images below to enlarge them

North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast
Arctic Oscillation Forecast

The NAO and AO is forecasted to be and continue to be in a negative phase, this suggests High Pressure development in the Mid-Atlantic and across Greenland as we move into the first part of June.  The CFS Long Range Pressure Anomaly map seems to show exactly this, with a fairly strong High Pressure anomaly out in the mid-Atlantic which confirms the above NAO and AO forecast

Now lets take a look at the 500hPa medium term forecast charts from both the GFS and ECM

Whilst the ECM (chart on the left) tends to agree with the above two factors with High Pressure developing in the Mid-Atlantic, the GFS differs somewhat with the placing of pressure systems but even here, there’s no real sign of anything particularly warm.


Based on the above factors, as we move into June High Pressure that is currently sitting over the UK will retrogress out into the Atlantic turning things much cooler than we’ve seen of late with also an increased risk of showers developing. As we move through the course of the month I think a Low Pressure trough will develop over or just to the East of the United Kingdom keeping things generally on the cool and showery side with High Pressure firmly taking up residents out in the Atlantic. Rainfall is expected to be around the seasonal average with temperatures coming in Average or slightly below average for the time of year.