It’s supposed to be June and so far this month we’ve seen some very cool, showery Autumnal like weather and unfortunately it looks like that theme is set to continue with further strong winds and heavy rain likely. Lets take a look at todays Ensemble Chart
Although it looks like we’ll see a slight rise in temperature as we move into the weekend, this is unfortunately due to an area of Low Pressure just to the South-West of the UK which is expected to bring further heavy rain and strong winds to many parts of the British Isle through the course of the weekend though I don’t think it’ll quite match the intensity of the rain that we’ve seen recently. So a wet looking weekend for just about everyone, the far North of Scotland may stay dry for a time but I think even here we’ll see periods of rainfall.
Looking ahead into the medium term, while it looks like we’re going to see High pressure developing across Europe, the models are keen on keeping lower Pressure close to or over the United Kingdom, the 500hPa anomaly chart below shows this.
With the NAO expected to remain negative there’s little sign of any sustained dry and warm weather even in the longer term forecast
Based on the factors above, I feel the cooler, unsettled theme is likely to continue through until the 23rd June at the earliest, beyond that things become a little more uncertain but with no clear signal either way on the period 23rd-30th June so at the moment, I would hazzard a guess and say there’s a 50/50 chance of things remaining unsettled or becoming slightly warmer. I will of course update the forecast when things become clearer.