Requirements have been met and and a UK Thunderstorm Watch has been issued.  Due to the nature of the current setup, frequent updates are likely over the next couple of days to take into account any change within the computer models.

Valid: Thursday 28th June


  • Theta-EW Plume moving up across the United Kindom
  • Advancing Cold Front pushing Eastwards will engage the plume
  • Key Zone; Eastern Midlands where a tornado risk is currently present

Synopsis & Forecast Detail

A Low Pressure system sitting to the South-West of England will interact with a weak High Pressure cell to our East during the course of the next few days and this will draw up some warm and very humid air from the near continent, temperatures are widely expected to reach 25c by Wednesday with a localised 26c not out of the question. This setup will allow a Theta-EW Plume to become established. Through the course of Thursday this Low Pressure system will move slightly Eastwards sending a Cold Front heading Eastwards across the United Kingdom, as this cold front begins to interact with the Plume of very warm and humid air thunderstorms are likely to develop along with some very heavy rainfall.

Key areas at this stage for the worst of the weather seem to be Eastern Midlands and up into Northern England, there will however be storms evident elsewhere however these are likely to be more elevated in nature which means they’ll be little in the way of rainfall, it does however currently look likely that we’ll see some heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms moving across South-East England.

Weather Charts

MO FAX Chart showing the approaching weather fronts on Thursday
GFS Model showing the Theta Plume, evident by the orange colours
GFS Model showing weak CAPE & LIFT Across England and Wales but very strong CAPE & LIFT Across France and the far SE
CAPE & LIFT still evident on Thursday Evening, the advancing Cold Front combined with the Plume means this weak CAPE & LIFT will still be sufficient for some localised severe thunderstorms

Updates will follow over the coming days to keep you upto date and to take into account any changes that occur within the computer model outputs. If deemed necessary, a weather warning will be issued on Wednesday afternoon.