July Outlook

June 27, 2012

Weather Forecasts


Junes turned out to be a washout, apart from 5-6 days of warm, sunny weather it’s been a largely Low Pressure dominated month filled with heavy rainfall and flooding. Will summer finally start in July?

Short answer. It doesn’t look like it. I’ve been going through the Long Term forecast models and they’re all currently indicating Lower Pressure over the United Kingdom which unfortunately means more cool, unsettled weather with the risk of further rainfall as we move through July, lets take a look at some models. Please click on the images below to enlarge them.

CFS Pressure Anomaly Chart

The above chart is the CFS Pressure Anomaly chart which shows the months ahead, whilst it’s generally not very accurate months in advance, it has shown to be accurate or very accurate 4-6 weeks in advance and this is showing us that Lower Pressure is likely over the United Kingdom during July with Higher Pressure staying away on the other side of the Atlantic, this suggests a cooler more changeable pattern.

CFS Temperature Anomaly

The above chart is the CFS Temperature Anomaly chart and this shows us that temperatures are likely to be around average, but slightly below average in the West, this tends to go hand in hand with what the Pressure Anomaly chart showed us.

CFS Precipitation

The above chart is the CFS Precipitation forecast model and this is currently indicating slightly above average rainfall across much of the United Kingdom through July, this is again indicative of Low Pressure in charge.

NAO Forecast Chart

The above chart is the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast chart, as you can see the NAO has been negative for quite some time now and it’s been Eastern Based, there doesn’t appear to be any real change to the forecast as we move into July with most members remaining negative, this suggests we’ll continue to see the pattern we’ve been in for the last month or so.

MJO Forecast

MJO Composite for July

The MJO is forecasted to move into a phase 2 as we move into and through July and this generally means lower pressure to the North of the UK, the above composite shows this and with no real pressure rises near the UK, it seems unlikely that we’ll experience any prolonged, warm settled weather.

July Weather Forecast

Based on the computer models above, I think we’re likely to see a fairly changeable month with further spells of unsettled, rainy and windy weather interspersed with a few days of warmer, drier weather much like we’ve seen through the course of June. There is currently no clear signal for any significant pressure rises near or over the United Kingdom.

Temperature: Average/Slightly Below

Rainfall: Slightly above – Above Average

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2 Comments on “July Outlook”

  1. Liz Owen Says:

    Any more positive forecast for August please?

    Reply

    • Daniel Smith Says:

      My August forecast will be out towards the end of the month, an early glance at the Long Range models does suggest a more settled period of weather, though!

      Reply

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