Please Note: Weather models since the issue of this warning have changed re: Fridays rainfall, an updated version of this warning is likely to be issued later on today
Valid: Thursday 5th 10:00 – Friday 6th July 23:00
- Slow Thundery Downpours through Thursday
- Heavier rain moving across Northern East Anglia and into Northern England on Friday
- Storms building across the South-West and Wales on Friday
Synopsis and Forecast Detail
Areas Effected – North-West England, North-East England, Northern England, Yorkshire, Northern East Anglia
Through the course of Thursday CAPE in the region of 500-700 J/KG with a Lifted Index of -3 along with some strong PVA Lobes and Diurnal heating from the sun will allow slow moving thunderstorms to develop mainly in the areas listed above, torrential downpours along with the already saturated ground is likely to lead to localised flooding. Elsewhere there is the risk of slow moving thunderstorms developing however they’re expected to be more scattered giving less of a flooding risk.
Through the course of Friday an area of more organised and very heavy rainfall will push across Northern East Anglia and into Northern England, this very heavy rainfall along with saturated ground is likely to lead to localised flooding, a severe weather warning has therefore been issued to take this into account. Slow moving thunderstorms are also expected to develop across Wales and South-West England, torrential downpours may give rise to further flooding in these areas. Below the Warnings Map is a detailed explanation which each colour zone can expect to see.
Red Zone – Severe Weather Warning Issued
This zone is expected to see the highest rainfall totals from both torrential thundery downpours through Thursday and heavy rain through Friday, flooding is a serious risk in this area due to the already saturated ground and things could turn severe very quickly. Whilst the storms on Thursday will be less prolonged, the heavy rain on Friday could continue for several hours in this area.
Orange Zone – Weather Warning Issued
This zone is expected to see both torrential thundery downpours through Thursday and heavy rain through the course of Friday, whilst flooding isn’t as high as the red zone its still possible and even likely in low lying locations.
Yellow Zone – Weather Advisory Issued
Slow moving thunderstorms through the course of both Thursday and Friday accompanied by torrential downpours, gusty winds and hail are likely to give rise to severe weather at times, localised flooding and dangerous driving conditions are likely in the heaviest of downpours. Public are advised to take caution whilst driving through severe weather.