You’d be mistaken for thinking that summer has passed us by this year, the last few months have been very wet and even record breaking across the United Kingdom with what seems like band after band of rain pushing across the United Kingdom, but at long last it looks like High Pressure will build towards us turning things increasingly settled, particularly across Southern parts. Lets take a look at some computer models to see how things are going to pan out.
Below is the 500hPa height anomaly chart, the ECM on the left compared with the GFS on the right, both models show the Azores High Pressure building across the United Kingdom, the agreement between the two models heightens the confidence in the forecast.
Below is the GFS Ensemble chart which gives us an idea of how much confidence we can put into the forecast, the closer the lines are the more confidence there is. I’ve annotated the chart to explain things.
Through the early part of next week High Pressure will begin to build across Southern parts of the country turning things drier and finally allowing the sun to shine, there will still be some rain around but I don’t think it’ll be nearly as bad as we’ve seen recently, however temperatures are unlikely to respond too much with highs in the range of 20-24c. Further North it’s expected to remain cool and damp with outbreaks of rain, sometimes heavy. Towards the end of the week High Pressure will tend to become eroded and we could see some rain returning across Southern counties but there are some fairly strong signs this will only be a blip, and as we go into the final couple of weeks of July High Pressure will be across Southern England finally bringing a taste of summer, at this stage it looks likely to remain cool and damp across Northern parts.