I’ve managed to take an hour or so out of my holiday to have a catchup with all the weather models to see whether August will offer some warmer weather. We did see a brief blip of much warmer weather last week but that’s been replaced by cooler and unsettled weather once again, in fact, the latest reports suggest July was one of the coldest months on record for some areas of the United Kingdom. Will August follow the same cool, unsettled pattern?

Lets take a look at some computer models. Below are the NAO and AO charts and these seem to indicate a return or continuation of a slightly negative pattern, whilst the NAE tends to fluctuate quite widely giving low confidence, the mean falls slightly below average and this would be indicative of a weak area of high pressure out in the Atlantic, likely placing Low Pressure over the United Kingdom.

North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast Models
Arctic Oscillation Forecast Model

Below is the CFS Pressure Anomaly Chart and this shows blues over the United Kingdom which would indicate Low Pressure and light oranges out in the Atlantic which would indicate High Pressure.

CFS Pressure Anomaly Model

The below chart is the CFS rainfall anomaly model and if we take a look at the August Prediction we can see that this particular model is predicting above average rainfall.

CFS Rainfall Prediction Model

Below is the CFS Temperature Anomaly chart and this shows that August overall is likely to be below average temperature wise, suggesting a continuation of cooler than average weather.

CFS Temperature Anomaly Chart

August Weather Forecast: 

Based on the above models it seems highly likely that August will continue to bring cooler and unsettled weather across the United Kingdom, Low Pressure is expected to be centered over or close to us through the month. Having said that rainfall totals are not expected to be as high as they were through June and the first part of July,cool unsettled weather will be more broken by short lived warmer periods than we’ve seen lately, but the overall theme is the cool, showery weather to dominate the month.

Temperatures: Below Average

Rainfall: Above Average