Heavy Rain on the way, warmer later?

August 13, 2012

Weather Forecasts


We’ve seen a taste of summer over the last few days and thats all thanks to a ridge of High Pressure keeping things generally dry and allowing warmer air to travel up from the near continent, unfortunately things are expected to turn increasingly changeable over the next few days with rainfall returning to the forecast.

Through Wednesday frontal systems associated with an area of Low Pressure just to the South of Ireland will push North-Eastwards across the country bringing a period of heavy rainfall, in particularly across Southern counties of England where we could see some brief localised flooding during the heavier periods of rainfall. The rain will continue to edge Northwards through Wednesday evening and into the early hours of Thursday, weakening as it begins to push into and through Scotland.

FAX Chart showing Wednesdays frontal systems

GFS Rainfall Model predicting rainfall for a large portion of the country on Wednesday

As we move through Thursday afternoon and through into Friday another area of rainfall will begin pushing into Western England, I’m keeping a close eye on this system as the models are currently hinting at some fairly large rainfall totals.

Through into the weekend then and the computer models are beginning to hint at a return to Higher Pressure meaning things settling down and becoming warm or even very warm as we move into the new week, there are still some uncertainties about this but there’s fairly good support for this outcome.

Ensembles show increase in 850hPa temperature and decrease in PPN spikes through next weekend

ECM also predicting rise in Pressure towards the weekend

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