Weather Advisory + Longer Outlook

September 12, 2012

Weather Forecasts


Valid: Thursday 13th 18:00 – Friday 14th 12:00 September

Issued For: Strong Winds, Heavy Rain

Highlights: 

  • Post Tropical Storm Leslie passing to the North of Scotland
  • Tightening Isobars bringing strong – gale force winds
  • Heavy rain associated with the system

Forecast
Through Thursday evening overnight into Friday morning Post Tropical Storm Leslie will pass to the North of Scotland however due to an area of High Pressure across the South of the UK tightening isobars will mean strong to gale force winds are likely to develop, along with this there will be an area of heavy rain moving into Northern and North-Western parts of Scotland and along with the strong – gale force winds we could see some dangerous weather conditions for a time. Winds should begin to die away through the early hours of Friday morning and through towards the lunch time period as the system begins to clear away Eastwards. Gusts in excess of 65mph seem likely in exposed locations.

Longer Range Outlook

Looking further ahead models are pointing towards a brief spell of settled weather this weekend as High Pressure begins to extend its influence over the United Kingdom once again, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty about this with Saturday currently looking likely to be the best day of the weekend before an area of rain pushes South across the country, beyond them it seems likely that cooler, fresher weather will be with to take us through the second half of the month with the latest models tending to lean towards building High Pressure out in the Atlantic, the NAO and AO agree with this as both are forecasted to become a lot more negative beyond the middle of the month.

The GFS Ensemble members are also pointing towards a more autumnal picture with temperatures dropping off around the middle of the month.

So I think after a brief spell of milder weather through the weekend and perhaps into early next week, temperatures will finally fall away for a longer period as High Pressure begins to build out in the Atlantic bringing down a cool, showery North/North-Easterly airflow turning things more unsettled, Autumn is just under a week away

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