I’ve been looking over the latest models and I can’t help but think “If only it were 6-8 weeks later in the season” as what the models are starting to throw up would produce something very interesting, unfortunately at this time of year there just isn’t enough cold air over the Arctic for it to produce anything noteworthy.

Lets take a look at the NAO and AO, typically in the winter we want both of these to be in the negative and both are forecasted to dive into a negative phase as we move into the second half of the month and when we see this happen, we typically see High Pressure building over the Arctic and in the Atlantic

North Atlantic Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation

The ECM and GFS 500hPa anomaly charts show this with a forecast for quite extensive heights across the Arctic and the Atlantic and lower heights to our East over Europe, they’re in fairly good agreement for this too

500hPa height anomaly model

The GFS Ensembles also show good agreement within the member suite for below average temperatures from the middle of next week onwards with an increased risk of rainfall too, perhaps taking us right up until the end of September, though that of course is too far out to say with any real confidence, Autumn is definitely on its way, and it looks like it’ll be arriving very soon!