Changeable Week Ahead

October 1, 2012

Weather Forecasts

You may have noticed the recent headlines from both the Daily Mail and Express warning of a bitterly cold Arctic blast, unfortunately for cold lovers there’s absolutely no truth in these stories whatsoever.

Having said that, the rest of this week is likely to be on the cool side with showers or longer spells of rain effecting just about everywhere, it wont be all doom and gloom though because I think many of us will see some sunshine between the wet weather. It’s beyond this period and into next week that things become tricky with some fairly large differences within the model output, however there is growing confidence for a warmer, settled period between the 7th and 11th October, chances are though it’s going to be short lived before low pressure returns.

The GFS Ensembles show rising temperatures and pressure early next week

GFS Ensemble 850hPa temperatures & Precipitation

GFS Ensembles 500hPa Pressure Chart

The 8-10 Day mean chart below highlights the uncertainties at the moment with the placement of High Pressure around the United Kingdom

The ECM Mean chart below is also going for High Pressure building early next week

ECM Mean


With that in mind, it looks like High Pressure WILL build in early next week with the potential for some warmer weather depending on the final position, at this stage I’d suggest it’s likely to be more of a transient affair with unsettled conditions returning not long after, though of course with the uncertainty at the moment things could very well change.

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2 Comments on “Changeable Week Ahead”

  1. michael haydon Says:

    Well , Although In general, the news Press likes to build up stories of forthcoming bad weather, This Winter, I think you have to be more open minded, since the Met Office has also hinted about changes already happening, and with respect, You dont have your own satellite and hundreds of staff, and multi million Pound Forcast model Computers. As you know Danial, the amount of Northern Hemisphere ice cap melt, was almost the highest amount ever recorded.

    At this time, of year, its unusual not to see many hurricanes, normally forming way out in the tropics, bearing down on the Islands and US coast. This is because I believe is due to a very strong La Niña effect being monitered By NASA.
    Its quite scary, that In line with some of the Forcasts Model’s shown in my old favourite Film “Day after Tommorow”, some are actually becoming factual, at the momment there’s been a 6C% drop in Ocean temps, This partly due to the amount of cold fresh water distablizing the Normal warmer Gulf Stream.

    ((dam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal forecasting at the Met Office, said: “Our research suggests the depletion of Arctic sea ice can lead to colder winters over northern Europe, but this is only one of a number of factors that can predispose what our winter weather will be like.))

    The Weather this year, has been the Stangest I have never Known, the ultimate wierd happening was A frost In Scotland and parts of Cumbria, just after August Bank Holiday, which is unprecendeted in my lifetime of 61 years.

    This Years Winter conditions, will & can change within 48 hours, But I think, The record ice melt, is going to be a contributing factor to how cold it really gets this winter. Together with the very strong La Nina Event being forecast. Thats why Im slightly surprised that you rubbished completely the forcasts of at least three independant met sites, which include the Met office! , that a short lived freeze could be on the way. The Former Tropical Storm, which battered us in the North west, is still Lurking, near Scandinavia, Its believed if it gets Blocked, or momentary stationary, it will allow much colder Air to begin to to travel Southwards towards Northen UK.

    Pity not more people comment and contribute to this Site, perhaps a new page, of Observations By people, by confirming there Email address, and telling us there current conditons would make this site more appealing. The Old Metcheck Site did have that abillty, but I found the site to be bugged/offline at times, and, sometimes no updates for many days, wasn’t user friendly Either.


    • Daniel Smith Says:

      I’m not sure where you’re getting the strong La Nina being forecasted from, if anything we’re heading for a Neutral/Weak El Nino instead and definitely NOT a strong La Nina as can be seen here

      The story I was talking about at the very beginning of this article was this one published by the Daily Express. Just to add, Hurricane Nadine is currently not being forecasted to impact the UK as the article suggests, as can be seen on the NHC forecast below

      It is going to turn cooler this week yes, but to call it an “Arctic Blast” is utterly ridiculous. I’m not really sure how I have “rubbished the forecasts of three independent met sites” though, in fact, I haven’t even mentioned the Met Office in this article so if you could point out how and where I’ve done that, I’d be appreciative.

      You’re right about the Arctic Sea Ice Melt, that has been unprecedented, but with few scientific studies into it’s effects on our weather at the moment it’s hard to really use this as a major forecasting factor, I did read the article published by the Met Office which mentioned the possibility of Arctic Ice Melt leading to colder European winters and if you read my winter forecast I do talk about the Arctic Ice Melt near the beginning. My current understanding is the excessive ice melt leads to cold pooling in the Sea temperatures to the North of the UK and East of Iceland, as we can see on the chart below

      This in turn reduces the amount of energy going into the Atmosphere around this area leading to a reduced risk of Low Pressure and increased risk of High Pressure in the area (Northern blocking) but I wasn’t disputing any of this whatsoever.

      Thanks for the suggest about a “members area” type thing, I’ll consider setting something like this up.


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