You may have noticed the recent headlines from both the Daily Mail and Express warning of a bitterly cold Arctic blast, unfortunately for cold lovers there’s absolutely no truth in these stories whatsoever.

Having said that, the rest of this week is likely to be on the cool side with showers or longer spells of rain effecting just about everywhere, it wont be all doom and gloom though because I think many of us will see some sunshine between the wet weather. It’s beyond this period and into next week that things become tricky with some fairly large differences within the model output, however there is growing confidence for a warmer, settled period between the 7th and 11th October, chances are though it’s going to be short lived before low pressure returns.

The GFS Ensembles show rising temperatures and pressure early next week

GFS Ensemble 850hPa temperatures & Precipitation
GFS Ensembles 500hPa Pressure Chart

The 8-10 Day mean chart below highlights the uncertainties at the moment with the placement of High Pressure around the United Kingdom

The ECM Mean chart below is also going for High Pressure building early next week

ECM Mean

 

With that in mind, it looks like High Pressure WILL build in early next week with the potential for some warmer weather depending on the final position, at this stage I’d suggest it’s likely to be more of a transient affair with unsettled conditions returning not long after, though of course with the uncertainty at the moment things could very well change.

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