I’ve been keeping a closer eye than usual on the models over the last few days and the reason for this is that they’ve been hinting at High Pressure building to the North and West of the United Kingdom and becoming quite blocked. Now, if this were mid winter a set-up like this would likely bring severe cold, but since it’s still very early in the season and the cold pool across the Arctic has really only just begun to build, it’ll instead bring cooler unsettled weather with the potential for some prolonged rainfall with snowfall limited to higher areas in the North.

GFS model showing high pressure to the North and low pressure centered over the UK
ECM model showing High pressure in the Atlantic and to the North of the UK with low pressure centered over us

The above two charts illustrate how this type of setup locks low pressure over the United Kingdom and this could bring further prolonged rainfall towards the middle of October bringing further flooding. Whilst the time frame is still beyond the reliable forecasting area of the models there is increasing support for this outcome to develop. The latest 500MB ECM & GFS model shows this.

 

I’ll be monitoring this situation over the coming days or so with updates on how things develop.

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