Could We See Early Snowfall?

October 8, 2012

Weather Forecasts

I mentioned a couple of days ago that the models were beginning to suggest Northern Blocking was going to become established and the models are now falling into some agreement of this happening towards the middle of the month, whilst each model comes about it in a slightly different way the overall trend is clear.

GFS Model at T144

ECM Model at T144

UKMO Model at T144

The three charts above show the forecast for exactly the same time frame and its fairly clear Northern Blocking is largely evident on all three models, surface conditions here in the UK differ however. I’m now fairly confident this outcome will develop with things becoming increasing cool and unsettled from the middle of the month onwards.

Whilst snowfall isn’t in the forecast at the moment, the current Sea Surface Temperatures are still ideal for this type of blocking to establish itself, warmer sea surface temperatures near New Foundland with colder sea surface temperatures to the North and West of Iceland.


If current conditions and signals persist into the later part of the Autumn then we could begin to see an increased risk of some snowfall, very early days yet of course but worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.


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4 Comments on “Could We See Early Snowfall?”

  1. Simon Says:

    Hi thanks for the detailed information on how you are predicting this coming winter, I find the science behind this very interesting.. You have predicted some early snow fall this year with increased possibility of northern blocking, are models still swaying in this direction from mid month, I live in the south of England and love cold and snowy winters.
    Many thanks


  2. Roman linley Says:

    Me too I love cold weather I’m hopping for the worst weather on record
    Bring it on ⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄


  3. Kate Says:

    We had frost this morning, everything was white, I live in Moray Scotland and it was snowing in the Cairngorms.


  4. Jacqu Says:

    Bring on the cold weather ,love waking up to cold and frosty mornings even though I’m outside working from 8 am I love it .And not to mention the snow too.


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