I mentioned a couple of days ago that the models were beginning to suggest Northern Blocking was going to become established and the models are now falling into some agreement of this happening towards the middle of the month, whilst each model comes about it in a slightly different way the overall trend is clear.

GFS Model at T144
ECM Model at T144
UKMO Model at T144

The three charts above show the forecast for exactly the same time frame and its fairly clear Northern Blocking is largely evident on all three models, surface conditions here in the UK differ however. I’m now fairly confident this outcome will develop with things becoming increasing cool and unsettled from the middle of the month onwards.

Whilst snowfall isn’t in the forecast at the moment, the current Sea Surface Temperatures are still ideal for this type of blocking to establish itself, warmer sea surface temperatures near New Foundland with colder sea surface temperatures to the North and West of Iceland.


If current conditions and signals persist into the later part of the Autumn then we could begin to see an increased risk of some snowfall, very early days yet of course but worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.